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11.05.26 - 21:01
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Oil Climbs as US-Iran Deadlock Lifts Bond Yields (Bloomberg)
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Hardika Singh, Fundstrat Economic Strategist says that tech stock earnings are really driving the stock market more than the war in Iran.
A renewed advance in oil prices sent bonds lower after the US and Iran failed to agree on terms to end their war, dashing hopes for a revival of the Strait of Hormuz while stoking inflation concerns. The Treasury market, which has priced out the odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year amid the Middle East conflict, saw an increase in yields. Another rally in chipmakers left the S&P 500 at all-time highs, but most of the US equity benchmark's shares retreated (Source: Bloomberg)...
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08.05.26 - 09:00
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Iran-Krieg – wird alles gut? (Commerzbank)
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Die Anzeichen für einen bevorstehenden Friedensschluss zwischen dem Iran und den USA verdichten sich, auch wenn Rückschläge wie der Schusswechsel heute Nacht jederzeit möglich sind. Wir analysieren, was ein Friedensschluss für die Wirtschaft, die Inflation, die EZB und die Finanzmärkte bedeuten würde.. --- Die Aktienmärkte waren stets von einem eher raschen Friedensschluss ausgegangen und haben – nach anfänglichen spürbaren Kursverlusten – vor allem in den USA neue Höchststände erreicht. Würde die Straße von Hormus dauerhaft geöffnet, wären die verbliebenen Rezessionsrisiken gebannt und die Unternehmensgewinne würden in der Tendenz weiter steigen – vor allem in den USA. Das spricht für gute Rahmenbedingungen für Aktien, zumal ein Ende des Kriegs mehr denn je für US-Leitzinssenkungen gegen Ende des Jahres sprechen würde..
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07.05.26 - 10:06
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Euro und Bund-Future im Aufwind: Märkte setzen trotz Iran-Krise auf Entspannung (Anleihencheck)
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Frankfurt (www.anleihencheck.de) - Die Nachrichtenlage zu den Entwicklungen am Persischen Golf, vor allem auch die aus der US-amerikanischen Administration, sind widersprüchlich, so die Analysten der Helaba.
Während der Präsident den militärischen Geleitschutz für die Passage der Straße von Hormus aussetzen wolle, um die "Fortschritte" in den Verhandlungen mit dem Iran nicht zu gefährden, habe Minister Rubio verkündet, die Operation, um Handelsschiffe zu schützen, stehe im Fokus. [mehr]...
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06.05.26 - 13:39
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S&P500 Futs Jump, Bonds Rally, Oil Tanks On Axios Report U.S.-Iran Nearing Deal (ZeroHedge)
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S&P500 Futs Jump, Bonds Rally, Oil Tanks On Axios Report U.S.-Iran Nearing Deal
Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war. This is based on a 14-point, one-page memorandum that creates a 30-day negotiating window for a broader nuclear and Strait of Hormuz deal and follows President Trump's announcement last night of "great progress" and a "complete and final" deal nearing.
"The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.
Nothing has been agreed yet, but sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began," Axios wrote in the report.
Here are the key points:
Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The duration is still under negotiation, with the U.S. pushing for 20 years, Iran offering five, and sources suggesting 12 to 15 years may be the likely spot.
Iran would also pledge not to seek nuclear weapons, accept enhanced i...
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30.04.26 - 09:06
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Bank of England expected to hold interest rates at noon as it assesses fallout from Iran war – business live (The Guardian)
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Brent crude jumps another 7% to highest since March 2022 on report US is considering military options against IranGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold at noon, as policymakers assess the economic fallout from the Iran war.
Economists will be looking for any clues on future rate policy in the statement and the subsequent press conference. The nine-member rate-setting panel, led by central bank governor Andrew Bailey, could hint at rate hikes in the months ahead if the conflict in the Middle East — where a shaky ceasefire is in place — drives inflation higher.
For now, the monetary policy committee is expected to keep the bank's main rate at 3.75%, while one or two members could vote for a quarter-point hike as a premptive move to ward off higher inflation.
Before the US and Israel began their attacks on Iran on 28 February, the central bank had been expected to cut...
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