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NASDAQ:LITE , we shorted this a few weeks ago, and it's finally starting to break down. I've seen some posts from people calling this a good buying opportunity, but I disagree. I think it's likely we move lower before a durable bottom forms. I'll reverse my short position to long once the probabilities shift in favor of the bulls. Until then, I'll continue assessing the selling pressure and price action for signs of exhaustion. NASDAQ:SOX NASDAQ:NVDA

Setup: LITE has broken to all-time highs on the 4h, accelerating from a multi-month base that built between ~$850-1000. The most recent 1h sequence is textbook — gap up May 11 with a 2.19M share bar, followed by a continuation bar to 1072 on 1.74M shares, and the current bar printing 1067+ on still-elevated volume. Price is breaking through the prior ATH zone (~$1020-1040) with conviction, not grinding through it. Flow: The index inclusion catalyst is mechanical — Nasdaq-100 adds before May 18 open force passive buying regardless of fundamental views. Options flow confirms the directional bid: call/put volume ratio 4.49x, net bullish premium $6.9M vs $3.8M bearish, and repeated ask-side call prints at 1050, 1010, 865, 800 strikes across May and later expirations. The deep ITM call purchases (730C, 800C, 600C) are synthetic long replacements, consistent with institutional positioning ahead of forced index buying. Analyst consensus is Hold with the mean target barely above current price, but that is irrelevant

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