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28.09.26 - 21:33
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9/28/26 - $crwd - 40% short at this point... (TradingView)
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9/28/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CRWD
40% short at this point...
- another day and the CFO dumped $120M of stock last week. did you catch that? lol probably not if you're long bc your analysis consists of... probably v little
- for those interested in some math- an ancient tool of time past
- let's say the company could get to $10B of fcf and hold that inter perpetuity. i'm ignoring growth rates for simplicity/ illustration becuase $10B of FCF is not "easy" considering we won't be at $10B of sales until... 2030. But let's assume $10B in ACTUAL cash (don't add back FCF). Remember we're at $1B in real FCF today. Let's assume that's 5Y from now, which it won't be, but let's imagine it.
- at 10B/ 0.035 (basically 1/2 the gov long bond lol)... you're at $280B, which is +/- the mkt cap today.
- if you assumed to get to this "divinely risk free" and "divinely executed" point (remember... mgmt and employees are dumping their stonks... probably they're very incentivized to care about your bags /sarc)... and say 10% K
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21.09.26 - 20:57
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9/21/26 -$crwd - Going for it again... (TradingView)
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9/21/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CRWD
Going for it again...
- after sizing out of my short on friday... i was left with a small single digit short and was like meh, i made good $ again, but probably took profits too early
- enter this morning
- the machines are bidding this thing back to ATH.
- kind of sad tbh, bc the single-portfolio-stock bros are not really understanding how this works
- insiders dumping full exposure
- you can even tell anyone active is rebalancing too (look at the open)
- and now i'm seeing the matrix. saw this in the quantum names, some of the semi names, photonic names, most recently $asst. it's the same exact thing.
- so while it's a bit easier to quantify the upside here (given this is a $250B company we're talking about), the exact "top" is probably a useless exercise
- but the fair value is probably $125-150/shr and we'll probably re-connect sub $200 at some pt ... and i'll play again (here) for what i'd consider the "easy money" (which it's not BTW) which is about 10-15% lower i
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21.09.26 - 07:42
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$CRWD (TradingView)
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What It Dew Yall!
NASDAQ:CRWD looks like it wants to take a dive. Market Structure is struggling in the rejection zone.
Looking to take it to the -0.618 & -1.
If price rejects hard at the 0.382 I get out and reload at the same discount zone above , where price currently is (1-1.618)
Happy Trading
Alerts Set
This is not Financial Advice. Educational Purposes only
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16.09.26 - 17:06
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9/16/26 - $crwd - Best short in mkt rn (TradingView)
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9/16/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CRWD
Best short in mkt rn
- pretty funny to see roxanne (a director) decide to sell 2/3 of her shares worth... $12M y day
- and just for lolz i looked again
- another director gerhard looking to dump more than 2x that of his colleague
- they might be believers in the company (who isn't tbh)
- but they sure are happy for the liquidity
- remember the flows are what are wagging this thing, not any sort of fundamental investors - they don't exist anymore (i'm sure of this)
- if you can't articulate why 1000x cash earnings for the N12M is a good investment here, then you are gambling, which is fine
- i'm prepared to size this up on the fed announcement today - i really don't care which way it goes, i have some ST OTM stuff to put on the size, but really am hoping for a one or two day rally toward the $250 line and then i'm going to take this to a max size short (which for me is usually ~30% and will decide on the leverage, but typically i budget for between 5-10x to put that on)
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14.09.26 - 16:06
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9/14/26 - $crwd - again... (TradingView)
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9/14/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CRWD
again...
- so OAI and Anthropic make a model that finds bugs all over your ecosystem
- you are the kroger of cyber security (dumb distribution)... "my clients are using more of this". yes more of not-your-product
- market is a pavlovian dog when it comes to "dump AI buy cyber" or "buy AI dump cyber". they're literally just punching bags against each other.
- the differnece is NVDA trades at like 1/2 or 1/3 of CRWD when you take a few year view
- so yeah, have fun paying 30x sales. i've written extensively about how this is no bueno
- enjoy
- i'm short again
V
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01.09.26 - 05:33
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CRWD Sept. 1: Can $230 Turn Into $240? (TradingView)
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CRWD closed Monday at $231 after gaining 5.77%. The stock recovered from an early pullback, reached $233.88 and finished near $230 after hours.
The short-term trend is bullish, but CRWD has moved from approximately $189 to $231 in only a few sessions. That makes the next entry more important than the direction of the last candle.
Daily Timeframe
The daily chart shows a strong recovery from the rising trendline near $185 to $190. Buyers defended that area and pushed CRWD back toward the upper part of its trading channel.
RSI has recovered to approximately 64.5 and is above its signal line near 54.9. Momentum is strong, but price is approaching resistance after a fast move.
The first daily resistance is between $233.88 and $235. A close above $235 would open the path toward $240, followed by $250 and approximately $254.
The first daily support is around $227. Below that, $220 becomes the next important level. Losing $220 would weaken the current breakout and expose the previous support zone around $197 to
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30.08.26 - 22:27
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CRWD — Dynamic Support & Resistance with Blue Dot Red Dot (TradingView)
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CRWD has been one of the more interesting charts this year. After that massive selloff, the recovery has been strong — but the key question is always: where are the real levels?
That's what Blue Dot Red Dot (BDRD) is built for. It uses Stochastic Bollinger Band crossovers to generate dynamic support and resistance levels in real time. When the Stochastic crosses above the lower Bollinger Band, a Blue Dot fires — marking that bar's low as dynamic support. When it crosses below the upper band, a Red Dot fires — marking that bar's high as dynamic resistance.
What makes this different from static S/R is that the levels update automatically. They color-flip when price crosses through them, and they expire when a new signal replaces them. So you're always looking at what's relevant right now, not levels from three months ago.
On this CRWD daily chart you can see how it plays out — blue dots catching the pivot lows on the recovery, red dots capping the rallies at resistance. The dashed levels give you a clean map
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30.08.26 - 22:24
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CRWD — Dynamic Support & Resistance with Blue Dot Red Dot (TradingView)
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CRWD has been one of the more interesting charts this year. After that massive selloff, the recovery has been strong — but the key question is always: where are the real levels?
That's what Blue Dot Red Dot (BDRD) is built for. It uses Stochastic Bollinger Band crossovers to generate dynamic support and resistance levels in real time. When the Stochastic crosses above the lower Bollinger Band, a Blue Dot fires — marking that bar's low as dynamic support. When it crosses below the upper band, a Red Dot fires — marking that bar's high as dynamic resistance.
What makes this different from static S/R is that the levels update automatically. They color-flip when price crosses through them, and they expire when a new signal replaces them. So you're always looking at what's relevant right now, not levels from three months ago.
On this CRWD daily chart you can see how it plays out — blue dots catching the pivot lows on the recovery, red dots capping the rallies at resistance. The dashed levels give you a clean map
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30.08.26 - 22:18
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CRWD — Dynamic Support & Resistance Levels with Blue Dot Red Dot (TradingView)
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CRWD has been one of the more interesting charts this year. After that massive selloff, the recovery has been strong — but the key question is always: where are the real levels?
That's what I built Blue Dot Red Dot (BDRD) for. It uses Stochastic Bollinger Band crossovers to generate dynamic support and resistance levels in real time. When the Stochastic crosses above the lower Bollinger Band, a Blue Dot fires — marking that bar's low as dynamic support. When it crosses below the upper band, a Red Dot fires — marking that bar's high as dynamic resistance.
What makes this different from static S/R is that the levels update automatically. They color-flip when price crosses through them, and they expire when a new signal replaces them. So you're always looking at what's relevant right now, not levels from three months ago.
On this CRWD daily chart you can see exactly how it plays out — blue dots catching the pivot lows on the recovery, red dots capping the rallies at resistance. The dashed levels give you a cl
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27.08.26 - 20:33
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8/27/26 - $crwd - here we are again... short (TradingView)
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8/27/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CRWD
here we are again... short
- usually valuation is a bad reason to short (btctc's a bit of an exception which i'll not get into which involves ability to arb the spread over time)
- but anyway...
- at 30x next year's sales you're NGMI
- funny i was lamenting to a friend y'day about how i wish cyber "rips" again in order to re-engage this short. i had to take down my NASDAQ:BUG position to half size in the last move becuase IV simply wasn't expanding despite it being down nearly 15%. how annoying
- but here we are again. the smoothbrains are bidding 30x sales for a name that's quarter trilly market cap. have fun learning this one again.
- i'm wrangling this still smol, but would size up in another 5-10% move. i think this is going to operationally be capped 20% higher and it's good beta to some of my other longs
- this last few months have allowed the longs to work well. so working from an extreme position of strength
- high cash.
- but this one... c'mon.
V
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27.08.26 - 04:48
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# CRWD Aug 27: $200 Is the Line I Wouldn't Ignore (TradingView)
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CRWD changed character after the close.
The stock spent most of the regular session around the high $180s, then jumped into the **$207 to $210 area** after hours and briefly traded near **$213.70**.
That move puts CRWD right back into an important area on the daily chart.
The bigger chart has been under pressure since the recent high near the low $220s, and price had fallen all the way back toward the rising trendline around the mid-$180s.
That trendline held.
Then the after-hours move changed the short-term picture very quickly.
The 15-minute chart is now stretched, though.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hWzeSgDe/
RSI is already around **75**, and price moved almost straight from roughly $185 to above $207.
So I would not want to chase the opening candle Thursday morning.
What I care about first is **$205 to $200**.
The GEX map lines up well with that area.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8bVbRwFy/
I have important upside levels around **$200, $205, $210 and $220**.
The $200 level stands out becau
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03.08.26 - 06:42
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CRWD GOING FOR MARK UP (TradingView)
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This looks like an Atypical form of Re-Accumulation for now
-Specifically #2 Rising bottom
I think the chart is too straightforward
Nothing much to comment about volumes
In view of Spring , i started bought @ 27th July
and added more position @ 31st July
Will added more if any Springboard in future, formed.
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06.07.26 - 16:57
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7/6/26 - $crwd - Everyone into the clown car! (TradingView)
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7/6/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CRWD
Everyone into the clown car!
- the market is so out of bounds in so many ways
- it can keep getting crazier
- but if you fundamentally believe paying 35x sales for 30% growth is acceptable, i have some pokemon cards to sell you
- valuation is not usually a good argument in itself to short, but if you look at the cyber names all opened -2 to 3% and now all up 5+%... beta flexing is all
- when we do get reset in 2H (timing still TBD)... these will flush so mega hard
- my preference is the NASDAQ:BUG ETF which is nicely overindexed to the 20x sales stuff and where IV is only 35% (not 60+% that you pay for the singl enames). allows me to gross up (ITM) without sweating the daily nonsense
- excellent hedge for tape/ sbet too :)
V
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11.04.26 - 01:54
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CrowdStrike down to $232 (TradingView)
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CrowdStrike doesn't warrant it's current growth trend line vs it's revenue growth around 20%. Because of this, I would expect CRWD to fall back to it's major support around $232.
Good luck!
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