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04.04.26 - 17:00
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Cubans study oil tanker diplomacy for signs of progress in secret talks with US (The Guardian)
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Despite hostile rhetoric Trump let a Russian ship break his blockade – could it herald a Venezuela-style outcome?When a sanctioned Russian oil tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, docked at Cuba's Matanzas oil terminal on Tuesday, unloading 700,000 barrels of crude, it was not immediately clear why the ship had been allowed to pass through Donald Trump's oil blockade.In January, the US president had proclaimed on social media: “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” yet last week he told reporters, “If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with it” – and waved the Russian ship through. Continue reading......
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03.04.26 - 19:09
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Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes (ZeroHedge)
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Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump and no recession, so traders got comfortable. Then 2008 happened. Today, with Brent crude having spiked over 60% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, the same dangerous reasoning is circulating again. That narrative is that this “event” is manageable and will resolve quickly. If that is the case, then the economy will absorb it.
That may indeed be the case. However, the conditions that determine whether an oil shock becomes a full recession are specific, quantifiable, and worth examining with clear eyes. That is what this analysis...
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