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10.07.26 - 17:54
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IEA Warns Escalation In US-Iran Hostilities Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast (ZeroHedge)
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IEA Warns Escalation In US-Iran Hostilities Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast
Despite the tentative recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the first build-up in global stocks since the war began, this week's re-escalation of the U.S.-Iran hostilities could flip the outlook for an oil market surplus for next year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.
Oil prices have plunged since the United States and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the middle of June, with North Sea Dated prices down by $31 per barrel in June to $68 a barrel by early July, their lowest since January and $2 per barrel below pre-war levels, OilPrice reported.
And while the oil market is still expected to move to significant surplus towards the end of the year, IEA said that this is heavily predicated on the assumption that tanker flows through the Strait will gradually recover: “An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast...
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10.07.26 - 17:54
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UAE Oil Output Hits All-Time High, Doubling Pre-Crisis Levels (ZeroHedge)
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UAE Oil Output Hits All-Time High, Doubling Pre-Crisis Levels
Confirming reports from earlier this week, the latest estimates from the International Energy Agency signaled that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which unexpectedly quit OPEC earlier this year in a shock move that threatened the cohesion of OPEC, produced 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, its highest output ever.
The UAE's crude oil production jumped from 3.3 million bpd in May to 4.1 million bpd in June after the country left OPEC effective May 1, started raising output, and managed to sneak a lot of exports out of the Middle East even as the Strait of Hormuz was mostly blockaded for the first half of June.
The crude oil production in June, at 4.1 million bpd, was the highest ever on record for the UAE, nearly double the output in March 2026 at the start of the Hormuz crisis. The production level also topped the previous record of 4 million bpd from the spring of 2020 when the OPEC+ producers were fighting...
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