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06.04.26 - 01:03
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Oil Up, Stocks Down As War Rhetoric Rises, Deadlines Loom (ZeroHedge)
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Oil Up, Stocks Down As War Rhetoric Rises, Deadlines Loom
After a long weekend of kinetic and verbal escalation (and a strong payrolls print), and with President Trump reminded Iran that his deadline for a deal looms, it is no surprise that oil prices are higher in early trading...
WTI topped $115...
Near post-war highs...
And despite the recent hope-filled decoupling of oil and stocks...
...S&P futures also weak, down around 0.7% in the early trading...
Treasury futures and gold are lower with USD/JPY near 159.70.
While the Iran conflict has established an ongoing state of caution in the market, several significant data points yet lie ahead: PCE on April 9, CPI on April 10, and FOMC on April 29.
As SpotGamma notes, the SPX Term Structure has returned to contango — which means options are pricing in higher volatility in the weeks ahead than in the near term.
Comparing that curve with Forward IV shows a meaningful spread around both the CPI and FOMC dates, suggesting current positioning may ...
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