Foren & Soziale Netzwerke zur UPS Aktie

 

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Started a NYSE:UPS long position. One month of tight range = energy building. Next leg should be a breakout, and odds favor an upside resolve. Good value setup to pair with the technicals.

Trade Setup and Rules Before UPS's earnings report, I already held a position in the stock, as indicated by my notations on the chart. However, my personal trading rules require a minimum profit margin of 10% to maintain any position through an earnings announcement. Since my trade did not meet this threshold, I chose not to hold it through the event. Earnings Reaction and Market Behavior Following the report, UPS experienced a notable gap up in price. My usual approach is to wait several days after an earnings release to observe how the market responds. Often, this period brings a pullback in the stock, and that pattern has occurred here. Technical Analysis and Trade Execution On my chart, I identified what appeared to be a Flag pattern, and I drew a line to track its progression. I set an alert to notify me if UPS broke out above this pattern. This breakout occurred this morning, even as the broader market remained weak. In response, I initiated a half-size position according to my plan. To manage risk

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Conservative Trend Trade + long impulse - supporting reaction bar + support zone + 1/2 correction + biggest volume Sp Calculated affordable virtual stop loss 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Trend + long impulse = neutral zone" Monthly CounterTrend "+ short impulse + biggest volume T1 + support zone + biggest volume manipulation bar - one bar reversal?" Yearly trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support zone + biggest volume manipulation bar"

Overview of UPS Price Movements UPS reached an all-time high (ATH) of $198.25, with a 52-week high at $145.01 and a 52-week low at $82.00. The stock experienced a significant decline, falling more than 58% from its ATH and over 43% from its 52-week high. After monitoring the company's steady downward trend for several years, a sharp drop following the latest earnings report renewed interest in its performance. Initial Entry and Position Management Interest in a long position was sparked when the 50-day moving average (DMA) caught up with the stock's price. On October 3rd, a half-sized position was initiated after observing three consecutive up days, which suggested a potential bottom. This move was confirmed as the price closed above both the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50 DMA. The stop-loss was set just below the recent lowest low of $82.00. Current Trade Status and Analysis The trade remains active, although currently underwater, as the original stop-loss has not been triggered. The

Conservative CounterTrend Trade + long impulse - support bar above JOC level + support level - above 1/2 correction + volumed 2Sp- + weak test Calculated affordable virtual stop loss 1 to 2 R/R take profit above 1H T1 below 1D CREEK Daily CounterTrend "= uniderectional balance + expanding ICE level + support level" Monthly CounterTrend "- short impulse + biggest volume T1 + biggest volume breaking bar with bad result" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level"

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- NYSE:UPS stock has been a dog in the last 3 years. - However, worst appears to be behind us. - Fundamentally, | Year | Bear EPS | Base EPS | Bull EPS | | -------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | ------------------| | 2025. | ~$6.90 (~3%) | ~$7.20 (+7% ) | $7.70 (~15% ) | | 2026 | ~$7.10 (+3%) | ~$7.70 (+7%) | ~$8.85 (+15%) | | 2027. | ~$7.30 (+3%) | ~$8.25 (+7%) | ~10.18 (+15%) | - NYSE:UPS isn't a growth story but a value play. Currently, it is trading at a valuation of bear case and forward p/e of 10. - However, I am betting on stabilization and upward revision of multiple. In that case, a fair forward p/e would be 12-15x | Year | Bear Case Price | Base Case Price | Bull Case Price | | -------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | -------------------- | | 2025 | $6.90× 10-12 → $69-83| $7.20× 15-18 → $108-130| $7.70× 20-25 → $154-193| | 2026

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Trading Thesis The core idea is a long-term position trade based on the price gravitating back to its "high trading zones," which are defined by the red trend lines. The strategy is to scale into a long position here at these levels and hold until the price returns to a key resistance zone(marked with red arrow). When the price "skips" these heavy trading zones(red lines/resistance), it often has a tendency to return to them. The trading idea is based on this "magnetic" effect. The entry points (green arrows) are placed to capture a move back up to these high trading zones (the red arrow exit), which is a key part of the overall thesis. Trading Plan Entry Strategy (Scaled-in): First Leg Entry: Enter the first part of the long position at the price level of the first green arrow. This is the initial entry point, betting on a bounce from a key support area. Second Leg Entry: If the price continues to decline and reaches the second green arrow, add to the existing long position. This is a dollar-cost averag

This chart highlights September's monthly support and resistance bands for UPS, built as “guardrails” around the month's price action. The outer bands mark the expected extremes, while the inner (half-step) lines act as intermediate pivot zones where price often pauses, flips, or accelerates. Think of them as a pre-mapped playbook for the month: upper band = supply, lower band = demand, with the midlines guiding targets and risk. How I trade it 30-minute for 2–3 day swings Setup: I wait for a 30-min close into a band (upper or lower) plus a clear reaction (wick rejection, momentum fade, or structure break). Entry: Fade the move back toward the nearest midline when the reaction confirms; or ride a continuation if price accepts above/below a band and retests it from the other side. Targets: First target is the nearest half-step line, second is the opposite half-step, final is the far band if momentum persists. Risk: Stop goes just outside the band (for fades) or just back inside the band (for break

Entering previous demand and key level on UPS. Ideally a drop to 70-76 where we have a bit of confluence in terms of the HTF POC(most traded level). The negative 1 to 1 and Macro 0.618 retracement from ATL. Couple of ways to approach it. Either look for a reaction/setup between 70-76 IF given. Or look for a reclaim of the previous HTF low at 82. HTF upside targets would be 106ish which is the previous high and also the global VAH. Major target would be around 140 +-5 which is the ATH VAH and where anchored VWAP currently sits.

9/9/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:UPS LT buy, but not yet for me - reading the last Q's transcript and a few conclusions - this is a serious turnaround. typically that's not my jam. - the amzn issue still not lapped, front and center highlights the crux of problems that need to be solved - consumer/ parcels/ tariffs... still relevant overhang investment wise - we're entering tax loss sell off season - this is either going to become "obvious" in the 70s if the market does a dunk tank in the coming weeks, or just pull a UNH... reversion, stall. that's where i'm targeting below $75 but *if/when and **why we get there. it has to be mkt related pullback - 7% dividend yield probably not at risk, but again, i'm looking at fcf and we're about 6-7% on my figures. that's fine, but not enough - could be something in a yield strategy for me into ye (rolling ITM covered calls e.g. the nov $80 strike for 8 and change caught my eye. - usually these types of names can be canaries too, on tariff, consumer behavior etc. so that'

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