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13.09.25 - 00:57
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UPS: Package Heading Up to Deliver Gains :-) (TradingView)
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Trading Thesis
The core idea is a long-term position trade based on the price gravitating back to its "high trading zones," which are defined by the red trend lines. The strategy is to scale into a long position here at these levels and hold until the price returns to a key resistance zone(marked with red arrow). When the price "skips" these heavy trading zones(red lines/resistance), it often has a tendency to return to them. The trading idea is based on this "magnetic" effect. The entry points (green arrows) are placed to capture a move back up to these high trading zones (the red arrow exit), which is a key part of the overall thesis.
Trading Plan
Entry Strategy (Scaled-in):
First Leg Entry: Enter the first part of the long position at the price level of the first green arrow. This is the initial entry point, betting on a bounce from a key support area.
Second Leg Entry: If the price continues to decline and reaches the second green arrow, add to the existing long position. This is a dollar-cost averag
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12.09.25 - 01:12
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UPS Support & Resistance Lines for September Month 2025 (TradingView)
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This chart highlights September's monthly support and resistance bands for UPS, built as “guardrails” around the month's price action. The outer bands mark the expected extremes, while the inner (half-step) lines act as intermediate pivot zones where price often pauses, flips, or accelerates. Think of them as a pre-mapped playbook for the month: upper band = supply, lower band = demand, with the midlines guiding targets and risk.
How I trade it
30-minute for 2–3 day swings
Setup: I wait for a 30-min close into a band (upper or lower) plus a clear reaction (wick rejection, momentum fade, or structure break).
Entry: Fade the move back toward the nearest midline when the reaction confirms; or ride a continuation if price accepts above/below a band and retests it from the other side.
Targets: First target is the nearest half-step line, second is the opposite half-step, final is the far band if momentum persists.
Risk: Stop goes just outside the band (for fades) or just back inside the band (for break
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11.09.25 - 23:21
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UPS - HTF Swing Long (TradingView)
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Entering previous demand and key level on UPS. Ideally a drop to 70-76 where we have a bit of confluence in terms of the HTF POC(most traded level). The negative 1 to 1 and Macro 0.618 retracement from ATL. Couple of ways to approach it. Either look for a reaction/setup between 70-76 IF given. Or look for a reclaim of the previous HTF low at 82. HTF upside targets would be 106ish which is the previous high and also the global VAH. Major target would be around 140 +-5 which is the ATH VAH and where anchored VWAP currently sits.
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09.09.25 - 14:00
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9/9/25 - $ups - LT buy, but not yet for me (TradingView)
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9/9/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:UPS
LT buy, but not yet for me
- reading the last Q's transcript and a few conclusions
- this is a serious turnaround. typically that's not my jam.
- the amzn issue still not lapped, front and center highlights the crux of problems that need to be solved
- consumer/ parcels/ tariffs... still relevant overhang
investment wise
- we're entering tax loss sell off season
- this is either going to become "obvious" in the 70s if the market does a dunk tank in the coming weeks, or just pull a UNH... reversion, stall. that's where i'm targeting below $75 but *if/when and **why we get there. it has to be mkt related pullback
- 7% dividend yield probably not at risk, but again, i'm looking at fcf and we're about 6-7% on my figures. that's fine, but not enough
- could be something in a yield strategy for me into ye (rolling ITM covered calls e.g. the nov $80 strike for 8 and change caught my eye.
- usually these types of names can be canaries too, on tariff, consumer behavior etc. so that'
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05.08.25 - 06:03
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Warren Buffet and UPS (TradingView)
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Hello I am the Cafe Trader.
There have been some wild days, and it's not over. Amidst all the stormy seas, and the major successes, I wanted to bring to your attention a stock that I think is becoming of great value.
UPS has been getting beat down for over three years, why?
Beatdown
- Trump Tariffs contributing to China slowdown. (35% of deliveries comes from China).
- Guidance downgraded due to uncertainties with the macroglobal scale, "spooking investors".
- UPS cutback dealings with amazon to increase profitablity (but also reducing volume and revenue.)
Just to name a few...
If such bad news, why buy?
Fundamentally their business model is strong, and the dividend is PAYING.
Dividends and Warren Buffett.
Buffett is still known to use a model by his mentor, Benjamin Graham. (if you don't know, take a little youtube shallow dive).
This has been used to build a large portion of how buffet evaluates a stock. Using his formula, the Maximum intrinsic value of UPS is $69.87
As of writing this artic
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03.06.25 - 23:33
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UPS Long (TradingView)
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After breakout from the upper trend line, now retest with good positive candles.
The first target is 103
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