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24.09.26 - 08:30
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Global bond sell-off deepens amid fears US economy may be running too hot – business live (The Guardian)
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Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsFinancial markets are now much more confident that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rates at least one more time this year.According to CME Fedwatch, there's now a 55% chance that US rates are half a percentage point higher by the end of December – implying two quarter-point rate rises (or one beefy hike!). That's on top of the Fed's hike earlier this month.The main story is still the huge global bond selloff, with yesterday seeing the biggest jump in the 10yr Treasury yield (+15.2bps) since the market turmoil around Liberation Day in April 2025.The main driver was a strong batch of PMIs, along with a rebound in oil prices, which both led to mounting speculation about faster rate hikes. Indeed, futures this morning are pricing a 71% chance of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting in October.With unemployment at 4.1% and growth running above trend, the US economy is showing signs of modest overheating. The Federal Reserve will the...
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24.09.26 - 01:15
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Fed′s Barr says future interest rate hikes ′likely′ needed to tame inflation (The Hill)
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Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said Wednesday the central bank will “likely” raise interest rates again to counter persistent inflation, after it did so last week for the first time in three-plus years. Barr, a member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said the unanimous decision to raise the benchmark interest rate by......
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23.09.26 - 20:15
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More US Homebuyers Apply For Riskier Mortgages As Interest Rates Top 7% (ZeroHedge)
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More US Homebuyers Apply For Riskier Mortgages As Interest Rates Top 7%
Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,
Higher interest rates pushed prospective homebuyers toward riskier mortgages last week, new industry data show.
The total volume of mortgage applications declined almost 2 percent for the week ending Sept. 18, according to a report released by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Sept. 23. This represented the third consecutive weekly drop.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 1 percent and were down 11 percent from the same time a year ago. Refinancing applications also fell to their lowest levels since February 2025, down 3 percent monthly, and were 62 percent lower year over year.
"Applications for both refinance and purchase loans declined further last week, noting that the comparison is to the week that included the Labor Day holiday," Mike Fratantoni, the group's senior vice president and chief economist, said in a news release.
Last week's decline aligned...
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23.09.26 - 18:42
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Stocks, Bonds Slip as Oil Jump Fuels Fed-Hike Bets (Bloomberg)
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Stocks joined bonds lower as higher oil prices stoked worries about inflationary pressures, which were further bolstered by data showing jump in US business activity at the fastest pace since 2021.
Gargi Chaudhuri, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, discusses the markets and how investors can be more selective amid a higher rate cycle. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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22.09.26 - 18:30
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Ed Dowd: The Fed Hiked Interest Rates Into A Supply Shock (ZeroHedge)
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Ed Dowd: The Fed Hiked Interest Rates Into A Supply Shock
Authored by Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative via Substack,
September FOMC Meeting: First Rate Hike Since July 2023
The FOMC did what the front end of the Treasury market (3-month T-bill) had been telegraphing for two weeks prior. On September 16 they voted unanimously to raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent. Kevin Warsh's press conference was short, blunt, and deliberately light on forward guidance. He said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, job gains are keeping up with the workforce, unemployment is little changed around 4.1 percent, and inflation remains elevated. He argued the hike "will support a timelier return" to the 2 percent goal and "This Committee will deliver price stability." He did not submit his own dot. The rest of the Committee's median projection for fed funds now sits at 4.1 percent at year end and stays there through 2027. They mentioned inflation risks are to the upside and that...
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22.09.26 - 17:31
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Short-End Treasuries Become Popular Bet on Fed Inflation Win (Bloomberg)
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Investors in the US Treasury market are shifting their focus to owning shorter-dated government bonds, a bet that the Federal Reserve will eventually emerge victorious in its fight against inflation.
Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities, discusses how the current rate hiking cycle might evolve and where the 10-year could finish the year. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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