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01.12.25 - 02:06
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Gold Rises on Potential Fed Cuts (WSJ EN)
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Gold edged up. Precious metals were likely supported by a combination of erratic trading hours on the CME and continued Fed dovishness, Sucden Financial said....
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30.11.25 - 20:09
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The Santa Rally Recipe: Fed Put In Full Force (ZeroHedge)
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The Santa Rally Recipe: Fed Put In Full Force
By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
The market figured out a holiday recipe that works well:
A Healthy Dose of Fed Puts.
A Dash of Trade Hopes.
A Smidge more Fed Puts because you can never have enough Fed Puts.
In the past 5 trading days (including Friday November 21st):
The Nasdaq 100 is up 5.7% (outpacing the “rotation” trade of the S&P 500 Equal Weight which is up 3% in those same trading days).
The probability of a Fed cut at the December meeting spiked to 83% from 35% (well within the range where the Fed would be unlikely to disappoint). 10s rallied as well, though “only” from 4.07% to 4.02%.
Bitcoin, which traded below $82,000 on the 21st, has reclaimed the $90k threshold.
Credit spreads joined in the party as CDX went from 56 to 51. That was matched by the Bloomberg Corporate Bond OAS, which tightened from 85 to 80.
There were a couple of other “events” during the week that created some interesting...
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28.11.25 - 18:01
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The Week Ahead (Dec. 1 to 7): Macron Visits China, Fed Ends Quantitative Tightening (Caixin)
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Dec. 1: Fed ends quantitative tightening
The U.S. Federal Reserve will stop reducing the size of its balance sheet on Dec. 1, ending a process that began in 2022. During this period, the central bank cut its holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities by more than $2 trillion, bringing total assets below $6.6 trillion — the lowest level since 2020.
Dec. 1: OPEC+ hikes output
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, will begin a modest increase in crude oil production in December. Eight member countries, including Saudi Arabia, will raise daily output by 137,000 barrels, in line with the gradual pace agreed upon in October and November.
Dec. 1-2: China-Russia security talks
China's top diplomat Wang Yi will travel to Russia for the 20th round of strategic security consultations. Wang is visiting at the invitation of Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council.
Dec. 1: Meituan launches in Brazil
Keeta, the intern...
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