UK Gilt 10Y News      93.349     0.0%     (UK Gilt 10Y Kurs)

 

A UK offering of inflation-linked bonds has drawn record orders, easing debt sustainability concerns ahead of this month's budget....

The UK's weakening labor market is prompting more economists to pencil in a December interest-rate cut from the Bank of England, with the speculation putting 10-year gilts on track for their best day since June....

Policymakers keep borrowing costs at 4% and warn of persistent weak growth before crucial budgetAnalysis: Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates at 4% is not all doom and gloomBusiness live – latest updatesThe Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold at 4% as it warned unemployment was rising and growth remained weak as Rachel Reeves prepares for her make-or-break budget.With less than three weeks before the chancellor's highly anticipated tax and spending measures, the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by a narrow five-four majority to keep borrowing costs unchanged for a second consecutive meeting. Continue reading......

Close-run vote raises hopes of rates cut in December, with inflation now having peaked at 3.8%Bank of England holds interest rates as it warns joblessness on riseBusiness live – latest updatesThere were reasons to be cheerful contained within the Bank of England's latest verdict on the outlook for the UK economy, released alongside its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4%.Inflation, it said, has now peaked at 3.8%, and is expected to fall steadily back to the Bank's 2% target sometime in 2027. That's an improvement on its thinking in August (the last time it published forecasts), when inflation was expected to peak at 4%. Continue reading......

Britisches Zinsniveau unverändert! Die Bank von England (BoE) hat den Basiszinssatz von 4,00 % den Erwartungen der meisten Marktteilnehmer entsprechend nicht verändert. Die Abstimmung erfolgte jedoch denkbar knapp mit 5:4, da vier MPC-Mitglieder für eine 25-Bp.-Senkung stimmten. Das begleitende Statement der Notenbank hat sich zudem verändert. Die Inflation habe ein Hoch ausgebildet und die Zinsen dürften auf einem graduellen Abwärtspfad sein, wenn sich dies bestätigen sollte. Damit ist Raum eröffnet worden für weitere Lockerungen in den kommenden Quartalen..

The Bank of England's latest decision gives investors their most detailed look ever into the range of views across the nine members of its rate-setting panel....

Members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a 5-4 majority to leave rates on hold at 4 per cent, as markets had expected....

The Bank of England opted to hold interest rates at 4% once again today, with a cut in December now thought likely....

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Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsJapanese bank Nomura have predicted the Bank of England will cut rates today.Last Friday, Nomura said they expect “a hawkish cut”, telling clients:We expect the Bank of England to cut rates by 25bp at its 6 November meeting and to remove from its guidance any reference to interest rates being “restrictive” and the need for further cuts. We believe weaker data over the past month support a rate cut, but that there is probably only one voting configuration (5-4) that can deliver it. Swing voters Bailey, Breeden and Ramsden will likely be needed to vote for a cut to get it over the line. We think a rate cut is a close call (we'd put our probability at just 60%), and note that consensus forecasts and market pricing are for no change in rates. The greatest risk to our November cut view is that the MPC opts to wait for substantially more news published ahead of the December meeting. Continue reading......

The Bank of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday in a closely contested decision that would end a run of quarterly reductions. Markets and economists expect the UK central bank to hold the benchmark rate at 4%, slowing the gradual once-a-quarter pace to cuts it has maintained since August 2024. It will announce the decision at 12 p.m. in London, followed by a press conference led by Governor Andrew Bailey half an hour later. Bloomberg's Lizzy Burden reports. (Source: Bloomberg)...

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves laid the ground for more tax hikes in her upcoming budget in a speech at Downing Street, blaming the previous Conservative administration and global trade frictions for harming the UK British economy. Reeves said she was determined to bring down inflation to pave the way for more interest rate cuts, while keeping a lid on the government's debt pile and borrowing costs. The Opening Trade has everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. With analysis you won't find anywhere else, we break down the biggest stories of the day and speak to top guests who have skin in the game. Hosted by Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson and Kriti Gupta. (Source: Bloomberg)...

Barclays is going against the grain and predicting a base rate reduction when the Bank of England meets on Thursday. What does that mean if you're looking for a new mortgage?...

October was an unusually good month for the UK bond market....

With living standards falling and the far right on the rise, the chancellor has the power to make decisions, not simply accept diktats from the marketsMore than three decades ago, James Carville, political adviser to Bill Clinton, made what became a famous quip about the power of bond markets to “intimidate everybody”. Clinton had entered office promising to transform the US's infrastructure, only to be told that big public spending would spook investors, drive up borrowing costs, and sink his presidency.Today, if there is one thing that Britain has in common with Clinton's US, it's that the bond markets loom large again in political discussion. Clinton shelved large-scale investment plans and slashed welfare in the belief that doing so would prove his economic credibility with investors. Likewise, in Britain, ever since Liz Truss's botched mini-budget, politicians have continually pointed to the risk of bond market revolt as the reason why public investment can't be afforded.Sahil Dutta is a lec...

Goldman analysts argue that fading inflation pressures and sluggish growth will open the door to a move sooner than most other analysts expect....

The sharp fall in UK government borrowing costs over the past week has potentially saved Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves billions of pounds as her fiscal watchdog has yet to decide when to close its debt-interest forecast ahead of the budget in November....

Policymakers under pressure for rethink after price growth in UK remained at 3.8% in SeptemberUK inflation remains at 3.8% for third month in a rowBusiness live – latest updatesHas UK inflation peaked? The latest official figures showing price growth in the UK stayed at 3.8% in September seem to suggest so.The statement cannot be made with absolute certainty yet but many economists reacted to the latest consumer prices index (CPI) data with a message that the only direction for inflation over the rest of the year was down. Continue reading......

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When The Curve Speaks: What The (UK) Bond Market Is Telling Us Authored by Ben Lord via BondVigilantes.com, In 2020, the bond market awoke from a decade-long slumber and moved long-dated bonds higher, in what we call a curve steepening, even whilst short-end rates were (possibly) at paradigm lows. It was easy to look at this steepening move as being driven by the quite justified cutting of interest rates in response to the global pandemic and the seizure in the global economy that took place, and therefore to stop there and ignore any deeper or more subtle message. Looking back at this move, there was an important increase in inflation breakevens, which are simply bond market inflation expectations. You might say that the bond market was trying to tell central bankers that if you combine super-accommodative monetary policy rates with enormous fiscal stimulus that was (again, justifiably given the circumstances) occurring, then inflation will return. Further, looking back at the moves in bond m...