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16.10.26 - 22:54
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Wall Street Anxiety Spreads as AI Rout Meets $110 Oil Shock (Bloomberg)
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Wall Street has spent the year betting on staggering AI growth while worrying about stubborn inflation. This week, investors got a fresh taste of both risks: a deepening rout in the AI complex that reached into its debt financing, and oil at $110 a barrel threatening to make inflation harder to contain....
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16.10.26 - 18:57
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The Blue Wave Trade: JPMorgan′s "Democrat Factor" Soars 20% As Wall Street Prices A Sweep (ZeroHedge)
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The Blue Wave Trade: JPMorgan's "Democrat Factor" Soars 20% As Wall Street Prices A Sweep
Prediction markets aren't the only place where traders are betting on a Democratic sweep.
Over the weekend, we laid out Goldman's case that gas prices are steering the midterms, with Polymarket pricing a roughly 65% chance that Democrats take both chambers, a number the bank's own historical work suggests is too high.
But for those who prefer their political bets with a ticker and a prime broker attached, there is another, far more lucrative gauge of how Wall Street sees November 3: JPMorgan's Democrat Factor (JP9DEMP Index on Bloomberg), a beta-neutral long/short equity pair built to move with the Democrats' odds, and nothing else.
It has done exactly that. Since August, the pair is up roughly 20%. Over the same period the S&P 500 rose 2.6%. Scaled up to a 6% volatility target, JPMorgan's Delta-One desk calculates that the Democrat Factor has generated ~170% annualized, a return that wou...
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