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03.04.26 - 19:09
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Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes (ZeroHedge)
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Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump and no recession, so traders got comfortable. Then 2008 happened. Today, with Brent crude having spiked over 60% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, the same dangerous reasoning is circulating again. That narrative is that this “event” is manageable and will resolve quickly. If that is the case, then the economy will absorb it.
That may indeed be the case. However, the conditions that determine whether an oil shock becomes a full recession are specific, quantifiable, and worth examining with clear eyes. That is what this analysis...
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03.04.26 - 15:48
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′If they pollute our rivers, what will become of us?′: the town divided between hope and fear in Brazil′s Amazon oil rush (The Guardian)
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As a state-controlled company explores for oil in the fragile Equatorial Margin the government struggles to balance its ecological promises with fossil fuel expansion. In Oiapoque, the stakes could not be higherCovering a densely forested area larger than Wales, the municipality and city of Oiapoque, in the state of Amapá, is an isolated yet renowned part of Brazil, thanks to a popular national saying. “From Oiapoque to Chuí” highlights the country's northernmost and southernmost points, respectively, illustrating its vastness.Although well known, it is a remote area with about 30,000 inhabitants where less than 2% of the houses have access to proper sewage treatment. One-third of its residents are Indigenous people from four ethnic groups living in 68 hamlets across three Indigenous lands, 66 of which have electricity for less than 12 hours a day. Continue reading......
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03.04.26 - 15:36
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Trump Says ′A Little More Time′ Needed To Open Hormuz, ′Take The Oil & Make A Fortune′ - As Israel Hit Hard During Passover (ZeroHedge)
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Trump Says 'A Little More Time' Needed To Open Hormuz, 'Take The Oil & Make A Fortune' - As Israel Hit Hard During Passover
Summary
Trump: US needs "a little more time" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while floating the prospect of seizing oil amid potential island or ground campaign
Iran and Hezbollah fire 140+ rockets during Jewish Passover, with sustained barrages hitting Israel
French-owned vessel becomes first Western-linked/European ship to transit Hormuz since war began, signaling a tentative thaw after weeks of near-total shipping freeze
Iran targets Gulf infrastructure, including a Kuwaiti desalination plant, while UAE defenses intercept large-scale missile and drone waves and energy facilities face disruptions
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'More Time' To Retake Strait, 'Make A Fortune': Trump
With some US Special Forces units already in the region, and with thousands more Marines and Sailors en route, and after Trump earlier floated at least two to three more weeks of...
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03.04.26 - 15:01
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Deutschland exportiert mitten in der Energiekrise Diesel und Öl (Tichys Einblick)
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Auf der ganzen Welt ist hektische Betriebsamkeit ausgebrochen. Regierungen versuchen, Rohöl, Diesel und andere Raffinerieprodukte aufzukaufen und zu horten – ganz gleich, zu welchem Preis. Es ist ein Überbietungswettbewerb um zirkulierende Rohöl- und Gasreserven entbrannt, die größtenteils in den maritimen Tankerflotten gelagert werden. Wir hatten bereits darüber berichtet, dass mehrere große LNG-Tanker ihre Reiseroute, die
Der Beitrag Deutschland exportiert mitten in der Energiekrise Diesel und Öl erschien zuerst auf Tichys Einblick....
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03.04.26 - 12:31
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How sheltered really is the US from the Gulf oil supply crisis? (The Guardian)
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As Trump suggests Middle East oil disruption is not his problem, experts say talk of US 'energy independence' is a smokescreen – with consumers paying the priceA month has passed since the US and Israel's war on Iran all but closed the strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil supplies typically flow. Prices have surged, amid fears of sustained disruption to global supplies.Donald Trump argues this is not his country's problem. “Go get your own oil!” the president urged countries, including the UK, earlier this week. The US has “plenty”, he added. The US is “totally independent” of the Middle East, the president claimed in a prime-time address on Wednesday. “We don't need their oil.” Continue reading......
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