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07.04.26 - 21:42
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Stocks Sink, Oil Rises as US, Iran Path Forward Remains Unclear (Bloomberg)
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Stocks fell and oil rose on concern the war in the Middle East is intensifying ahead of President Donald Trump's deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire deal.
Fears that an escalation of the conflict could heighten an energy squeeze and endanger the global economy curbed risk appetite, with the S&P 500 halting a four-day advance. Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Portfolio Solutions Group CIO joins to discuss what investors should do in this environment. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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07.04.26 - 21:31
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Oil, Inflation, & Recession (ZeroHedge)
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Oil, Inflation, & Recession
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
It's not the price of oil per se that triggers recession, it's the underlying vulnerabilities that have been cloaked with happy story narratives to keep the game going.
Recessions don't require a spike in the price of oil/gasoline, but spikes in energy prices trigger recessions. This makes sense, as hydrocarbons are the foundation of every industry, from the so-called "green" industries to all the high-tech industries (SpaceX, AI data centers etc.) to transport, plastics and everything else.
Recessions have other causes, of course: the business cycle of over-indebtedness and speculative excesses leading to defaults and the contraction of credit and spending, the collapse of speculative asset bubbles, the inflationary spiral of overborrowing to fund "guns and butter," and disruptive events such as plagues and wars.
Inflation reduces discretionary income as a larger share of earnings must be d...
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07.04.26 - 19:30
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EIA Raises Oil-Price Forecasts as War in Middle East Continues (WSJ EN)
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In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA raised its 2026 forecast for Brent crude to $96 a barrel from $79 a barrel previously. It now expects U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude to average $87 a barrel, up from $74 a barrel in the March outlook....
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