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05.07.26 - 15:24
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Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator (ZeroHedge)
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Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Wage growth peaked four years ago. Since 1985, it has led CPI by three to seventeen months in every single cycle. The May 4.2% inflation print is the noise. Watch the wages.
Headline CPI just printed 4.2% year-over-year for May. The highest reading since April 2023. The 10-year Treasury punched above 4.6% on the back of it, then pulled back recently. Energy ran +23.5% over the past twelve months on the Iran war, accounting for roughly 60% of the monthly all-items gain, and the doom crowd keeps pushing this is 1979 all over again with rate hikes ahead, a recession behind, and a cornered Fed. Here is why they are likely wrong.
After three decades of watching inflation cycles turn, I can tell you the variable that actually leads CPI peaks is wage growth. And wage growth peaked fifty months ago.
Wage Growth Leads. CPI Follows.
For decades, economists taught the Phillips Curve as if it were a law o...
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05.07.26 - 04:54
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Component inflation weighs on manufacturing momentum as Taiwan PMI growth moderates (Digitimes)
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Surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI servers has driven shortages and sharp price increases for conventional memory, while microcontroller (MCU) suppliers have also begun passing higher costs on to customers. Apple raised prices for certain Mac and iPad models in late June, and market rumors suggest the upcoming iPhone 18 could see price increases of as much as 30%....
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03.07.26 - 18:36
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Investor Woche: US-Arbeitsmarkt kühlt ab, Euro-Inflation sinkt, Tesla verkauft 25 % mehr, Renk kauft David Brown, KNDS cancelt IPO, OpenAI will US-Regierung 5 % Anteil schenken, Argentina Metals übernimmt Kupferprojekte (Verumo)
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Der US-Arbeitsmarkt kühlt sich überraschend ab und in der Eurozone sinkt die Inflation, was den Zinsdruck mindert. Renk kauft David Brown Deefencee, SAP will sparen, KNDS verschiebt das IPO, Tesla verkauft deutlich mehr Autos, Analysten sehen bei Palantir eine Kaufgelegenheit und Argentina Metals übernimmt fast 10.000 Hektar große Kupferprojekte....
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03.07.26 - 16:00
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Turkey Inflation Eases To 32.11% In June (AFX)
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ANKARA (dpa-AFX) - Turkey's consumer price inflation moderated in June to the lowest level in three months, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Friday.Consumer price inflation......
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03.07.26 - 12:36
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Inflation kühlt weiter ab - EZB und Fed bleiben vorsichtig (Anleihencheck)
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Frankfurt (www.anleihencheck.de) - Auf die Hitzewelle der vergangenen Wochen folgte in Deutschland eine erfrischende Abkühlung, so die Analysten der Helaba.
Ein ähnliches Bild zeige sich bei der Inflation: Die Teuerung habe sich im Juni auf 2,3% gegenüber dem Vorjahr abgekühlt und liege damit wieder nahezu auf dem Zielniveau der EZB. [mehr]...
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