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16.08.26 - 16:06
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Interest rate dilemma for central banks as inflation rises but growth slows (The Guardian)
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The Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England appear unclear on how to tackle inflation amid the Iran warNew UK cost of living crisis looms as rising energy bills lift inflationInflation rates have been falling across the industrialised world, but fears that the Middle East war will raise oil prices means central banks are sitting on their hands when they should be raising interest rates to subdue inflationary pressures.The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are still smarting from the criticism of their inaction in 2022 when inflation soared above 10% in the UK and eurozone, and over 9% in the US. Continue reading......
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16.08.26 - 07:06
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New UK cost of living crisis looms with soaring energy bills forecast to lift inflation (The Guardian)
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Latest reading on Wednesday likely to frame scale of challenge for new PM to ease pressures on households amid Iran war fallout British households are facing a renewed cost of living squeeze, with official figures expected to show this week that soaring energy bills drove up inflation in July to close to 3%.As the Iran war continues to send shock waves through global energy markets, economists predict the surge in UK gas and electricity bills last month will push Britain's headline inflation rate to 2.9%. Continue reading......
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15.08.26 - 14:12
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Inflation Is Cooling. But is 2% Out of Reach? (Bloomberg)
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BlackRock's Rick Rieder says the latest CPI report gave markets reason to celebrate, but inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. He argues the economy is now “in the ballpark” and that raising overnight rates may not be the most effective way to bring inflation lower. The bigger issue for markets may be the long end of the yield curve, where fiscal deficits, heavy treasury issuance and AI-related financing push real rates higher. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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14.08.26 - 17:36
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UMich Sentiment Slumps In August As War Re-Escalated, Inflation Fears Tick-Up (ZeroHedge)
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UMich Sentiment Slumps In August As War Re-Escalated, Inflation Fears Tick-Up
Following July's rebound to pre-war levels, the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was expected to weaken modestly as the MidEast re-escalated (and with it the price of gas).
Sure enough, the headline sentiment index tumbled from 55.2 to 51.0 (55.0 exp) with both Current Conditions (51.8 vs 54.8 prior vs 54.9 exp) and Expectations (50.6 vs 55.4 prior vs 55.2 exp) also both tumbling...
Decreases in sentiment were seen across the political spectrum, with Republicans exhibiting the strongest month-to-month decline in August. Sentiment among Republicans is now 19% below readings just prior to the Iran conflict and the lowest since the 2024 election.
Although the early-month weakening in sentiment was pervasive across various demographic groups, notably large reductions were seen among older consumers, lower-income consumers, and those without a college degree.
As Surveys of Consumers Dire...
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