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08.04.26 - 04:42
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New Zealand Holds Key Rate as Fuel Surge Fans Inflation (Bloomberg)
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New Zealand's central bank held its key interest rate at the lowest level in almost four years and restated it will look through the initial inflationary impact of surging fuel prices, in a decision released just hours after the US and Iran agreed to a tentative ceasefire....
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07.04.26 - 21:31
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Oil, Inflation, & Recession (ZeroHedge)
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Oil, Inflation, & Recession
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
It's not the price of oil per se that triggers recession, it's the underlying vulnerabilities that have been cloaked with happy story narratives to keep the game going.
Recessions don't require a spike in the price of oil/gasoline, but spikes in energy prices trigger recessions. This makes sense, as hydrocarbons are the foundation of every industry, from the so-called "green" industries to all the high-tech industries (SpaceX, AI data centers etc.) to transport, plastics and everything else.
Recessions have other causes, of course: the business cycle of over-indebtedness and speculative excesses leading to defaults and the contraction of credit and spending, the collapse of speculative asset bubbles, the inflationary spiral of overborrowing to fund "guns and butter," and disruptive events such as plagues and wars.
Inflation reduces discretionary income as a larger share of earnings must be d...
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07.04.26 - 18:42
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NY Fed: Inflation Expectations Jump, Driven By Surging Gas (ZeroHedge)
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NY Fed: Inflation Expectations Jump, Driven By Surging Gas
Ahead of Friday's CPI report, inflation fears are already rising, with the NY Fed's latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reporting that Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon were higher at 3.42% in March from the previous month's 3.00%, matching the highest since April '25. Inflation expectations also increased by 0.1% to 3.1% at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March.
The jump in year-ahead expectations was driven by a surge in gas inflation which rose 5.3% to 9.4%, the highest reading since March 2022.
Other commodity price change expectations also rose, but to a more limited degree: food prices are now expected to rise 6%; medical costs to rise 9.7%; the price of a college education to rise 9%; rent prices to rise 7.1%.
Turning to the labor market, sentiment is deteriorating fast with respondents saying that the mean probability the US unemployment ...
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07.04.26 - 15:42
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Fed′s Williams on Inflation, Monetary Policy, Labor Market (Bloomberg)
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New York Fed President John Williams says monetary policy is “really well positioned” for the Fed to “wait and see” on the economic consequences of war in Iran. Williams also comments on his view of the US economy and labor market and the issue of continuity at the Federal Open Market Committee. He speaks with Michael McKee on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)...
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