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11.08.26 - 21:54
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July CPI Crucial as Inflation Rebound Concerns Rise (Bloomberg)
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Barclays US economist Pooja Sriram discussed expectations for the upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, emphasizing that the recent softer inflation reading in June is likely to be short-lived. She noted that while the July CPI data may not be decisive on its own, it remains a critical data point for markets and policymakers, especially following last Friday's relatively soft payrolls report which eased concerns about a reacceleration in economic activity. Sriram highlighted that inflation data will play a key role in shaping expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting, with all eyes on whether inflation rebounds as anticipated. The segment underscored the significance of CPI and PPI data as the next major test for the Fed's policy direction. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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11.08.26 - 21:48
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Fed Expected to Keep Raising Rates Until Inflation Cools (Bloomberg)
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Kelsey Berro, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, discussed the Federal Reserve's challenging position amid recent disinflationary signals. Despite expectations for a modest 0.2% month-over-month increase in core CPI and relatively moderate inflation rates over several time horizons, the Fed remains cautious due to core PCE inflation running above 3%. Berro emphasized that a single data point will not dictate the Fed's next move, especially with key economic reports such as CPI, PPI, and payrolls scheduled in the coming weeks, alongside the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. The market continues to price in potential rate hikes, reflecting the Fed's possible strategy of implementing 'insurance hikes' if inflation data remains elevated and the labor market stable. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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11.08.26 - 21:42
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Unpriced Food Inflation Threatens Volatile Bond Market (Bloomberg)
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Marie-Anne Allier, Fixed Income Fund Manager at Carmignac Gestion, discussed the current challenges facing bond markets amid rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions involving Iran. She noted that much of the negative impact from higher oil, gas, and energy prices is already priced into the market, with expectations of fewer interest rate cuts and potential hikes in the US and Europe. However, Allier highlighted a looming risk that is not yet fully reflected in bond prices: food inflation. She pointed to adverse weather conditions affecting harvests, disruptions to Ukraine's grain exports due to the conflict with Russia, and the potential volatility from El Niño as factors likely to trigger a new supply shock in food prices within the next six to twelve months. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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11.08.26 - 20:06
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Solid 3Y Auction Stops Through Ahead Of Tomorrow′s CPI Report (ZeroHedge)
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Solid 3Y Auction Stops Through Ahead Of Tomorrow's CPI Report
Ahead of tomorrow's CPI report (which will come in tame thanks to continued housing disinflation), moments ago the US Treasury sold its first refunding auction, which came in very strong, stopping through the When Issued, and with above par metrics.
Pricing at a high yield of 4.291%, up from 4.179% in July and the highest since Feb 2025, the auction stopped through the When Issued 4.296% by 0.5bps, the 2nd consecutive through auction.
The bid to cover rose to 2.712, up from 2.600 and the highest since November; it was obviously well above the six-auction average of 2.606.
The internals were also solid, with Indirects awarded 64.24%, down slightly from 67.50% last month but in line with the recent average of 3.729%. And with Directs awarded 24.0%, well above the average of 21.7%, Dealers were left holding just 11.7%, one of the lowest Dealers this year.
Overall, this was a rock solid auction, and it should eliminate any concerns...
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11.08.26 - 19:06
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AI Billions, Oil Swings and an Inflation Test | Open Interest 8/11/2026 (Bloomberg)
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Get a jump start on the US trading day with David Gura and Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg Open Interest." The AI money machine keeps rolling as Intel, Nvidia and Anthropic line up billions. Meanwhile, oil erases earlier gains as Pakistan signals optimism over a US-Iran deal. And an inflation test looms as investors brace for key data that could shape the Federal Reserve's next move. Plus, Peter Beck, Rocket Lab founder, president and CEO, says the company is pushing hard to launch its Neutron rocket for the first time this year. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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