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12.12.25 - 02:45
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Politische Krise zur Unzeit: Parlament in Thailand aufgelöst (N-TV)
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Thailands König löst das Unterhaus auf, in spätestens 60 Tagen soll neu gewählt werden. Die Regierungskrise kommt zu einem denkbar ungünstigen Zeitpunkt. Gerade erst ist der Grenzstreit mit Kambodscha wieder aufgeflammt, Hunderttausende sind auf der Flucht....
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11.12.25 - 17:27
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An "Existential Crisis" To Close 2025 (ZeroHedge)
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An "Existential Crisis" To Close 2025
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The Fed delivered what was expected – a 25bps rate cut to 3.75% and a deep public split over whether it should cut further because the labor market is weakening or keep policy tight because inflation is too high. The Fed will also buy $40bn of T-Bills just after stopping QT, but this is not to be seen as QE, nor as having any impact on monetary policy - and QE was a neutral “asset swap”, not a balance sheet expansion that juiced asset prices. See here for the take of our US Strategist Philip Marey, who concludes that as Trump takes a firmer grip of the Fed ahead, rates are likely to fall more than some expect.
The ECB's Lagarde spoke of “Europe's existential crisis” and didn't think the level of ECB rates could do anything about it. She underlined estimates that internal trade barriers due to national regulations on top of the EU's own amount to an effective tariff of 110% on services and 60% on goods tr...
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11.12.25 - 17:27
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Affordability Crisis: Challenging The Poverty Line (ZeroHedge)
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Affordability Crisis: Challenging The Poverty Line
Authored by Michael Lebowtiz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, wrote a provocative Substack essay, Part 1: My Life Is A Lie, that is sparking a debate among economists and raising awareness of the affordability crisis. It's not just the wonky economists debating the merits of his article; The Washington Post, CNN (News Central), FOX Business (Charles Payne), and social media are also critiquing it.
Michael uses the official poverty line calculation and what he deems the “Mathematical Valley” to help his readers better appreciate why affordability is becoming a hot topic.
The Poverty Line
Per Michael Green:
But there was one number I had somehow never interrogated. One number that I simply accepted, the way a child accepts gravity.
The poverty line.
I don't know why. It seemed apolitical, an actuarial fact calculated by serious people in government offices...
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11.12.25 - 17:27
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Oracle Plunges Most Since Dot Com Bubble, CDS Blow Out To Lehman Crisis Levels (ZeroHedge)
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Oracle Plunges Most Since Dot Com Bubble, CDS Blow Out To Lehman Crisis Levels
It's a very ugly morning for Oracle.
The company, once viewed as a bellwether of the AI investment boom, and which plunged as much as 40% from its September highs ahead of earnings amid fears (first discussed here) how it would fund its massive future spending plans - and which prompted banks to downgrade its debt as it became clear that Oracle would have to issue massive amounts of debt becoming the "first AI domino to fall", was down 16% early this morning, losing $100 billion in market cap. It was the biggest one-day drop since the bursting of the dot com bubble.
The reason, as we pointed out yesterday after it ORCL reported Q2 earnings and when the stock was still trading well north of $200 (it no longer is), is that capex, at $12BN, came in far hotter than the $8.8 consensus estimate...
... prompting renewed questions how this company, whose free cash flow just hit a record low, will fund all this f...
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