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14.09.25 - 10:18
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$CMG is having correction by multiple compression. (TradingView)
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- NYSE:CMG is not undervalued, price has fallen lower from all time highs but the drop is justified.
- This company was trading at 65x forward earnings perhaps because of flawless execution by it's ex-CEO.
- But this company is experiencing declines in same store sales and revenue growth is moderating.
- Currently, as of Sept 14, 2025, It's trading at 27x forward earnings which is not too high but not too low either.
- I have marked three zones, first red zone is for people looking for a counter trend/bounce ideally for swing traders. Yellow/Cyan for investors who might want to DCA and lastly green zone which is good for long term investors.
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 1.21 | 1.42 | 1.67 | 2.07
EPS% | 8.38% | 17.02% | 17.63% | 23.82%
EPS is growing mid teens. A fair forward p/e would be 15 but I am willing to pay around 20 x forward p/e for the brand value with a hope they will turn around the business
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 1.21 | 1.42 | 1.67 | 2.07
Fair value | $24 |
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13.09.25 - 22:27
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CMG: A Strategic Long Thesis and Tiered Accumulation Plan (TradingView)
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The recent price action in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) suggests the stock has entered a critical consolidation phase following a significant move. This period of price weakness, rather than signaling a reversal of the long-term trend, presents a calculated opportunity for a multi-tiered accumulation of a long position. The thesis is built on the premise that the stock is finding a strong base of support from which a new leg of the uptrend will launch, targeting a previous high.
This strategy employs a sophisticated dollar-cost-averaging approach to mitigate risk and optimize the average entry price. The trade is structured to enter at the first sign of a bottom, and then add to the position on subsequent dips, assuming the price tests lower support levels before a final rally.
Trade Idea:
Entry Point 1: Initial Position (First Green Arrow)
The first green arrow marks the initial entry into the long position. This entry is not a blind "catch the falling knife" attempt, but a strategic move at a key techni
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28.08.25 - 21:21
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CMG....Patience will payoff (TradingView)
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? Technical Picture
• Trend: Still in a downtrend. Price is trading below the 10, 20, 50, and 200 SMAs (42.77, 43.12, 45.29, 50.11). That's textbook bearish until proven otherwise.
• Support: Current local low at $41.18. If that breaks, Bear Target 1 at $38.86 and Bear Target 2 at $34.24 are realistic.
• Resistance: Needs to reclaim $42.77–43.12 zone (cluster of 10 & 20 SMAs). Then $47.22 (Bull Target 1). True reversal signal would require reclaiming the 50-day SMA (45.29) and ideally the 200-day SMA (50.11).
• Momentum: Price Heat Meter is in the lower end, but no strong bullish divergence yet. Bearish continuation is still favored.
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⚖️ Cost vs. Benefit
• Buying now: You're catching a falling knife. Limited upside until price clears resistance. You risk a drop to the 30s if momentum accelerates.
• Waiting: Higher probability entry would be above $43–45 with confirmation. Yes, you'll miss a few points, but you'll avoid dead money or a steep drawdown.
• Short/Bearish p
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13.08.25 - 20:33
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$CMG Long Swing Trade (TradingView)
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Pros
-Major pullback from highs: -40% from ATH.
-Technical confluence at support: Top of 2020–2024 range, weekly 200MA, and weekly volume POC.
-Gap magnet above: July 22 gap to $50.76 (+21% from here) with intermediate target $45–47 (+8–9%).
-Strong fundamentals: YOY revenue and gross profit growth consistently +20–30%.
-Brand moat: Loyal customer base, pricing power, consistent product quality.
-Innovation: Ongoing AI & robotics investment in meal prep. Supports margin expansion over time.
-Post-split price appeal: Lower nominal price post 50:1 split may draw in retail on recovery.
Risks
-Valuation still stretched: P/E of 38 even after a large correction. Leaves room for further multiple compression.
-Macro headwinds: If consumer spending slows, fast-casual dining could see softer traffic.
-Gap risk to the downside: A decisive break below $40 could trigger selling toward $35–37.
-High expectations baked in: Growth slowdown could cause outsized downside.
Entry Zone: Current levels ($43–44)
Targets:
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