Foren & Soziale Netzwerke zur CONFLUENT Aktie

 

Ticker: NASDAQ:CFLT (Confluent, Inc.) Bias: Long Timeframe: Daily (with momentum building from May lows) Entry: Around $24.30 (near recent breakout above pivot at $22.80) Stop Loss: $22.14 (below swing lows, ~8.86% risk) Target: $29.76 (near R2 resistance, ~22.60% reward) Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.35:1 Position Sizing Suggestion: Limit risk to 1-2% of capital (e.g., ~$21,000 total risk on 3,271 shares as shown) Confluent (CFLT) is showing strong bullish momentum on the daily chart, breaking out from a multi-month consolidation base between $18–$23 since April 2025 lows. The price has formed higher highs and lows, supported by a bullish MACD crossover (green signal line above red, positive histogram bars), indicating accelerating upside potential. RSI is neutral around 54–60, leaving room to run without being overbought. Volume has ticked up on recent green candles, confirming buyer interest. From a smart money perspective, institutional ownership stands at ~78%, with net buying in Q2 2025 (e.g., hedge fun

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- We are entering era of Agentic AI which requires real time data and agent decides to take an action on that event in near real time. - Confluent valuation is so cheap in a massive TAM and an exploding tailwind of AI Agents. I am seeing all the tech companies and startups are building AI Agents and apetite for real time data streaming capability, processing is required. - NASDAQ:CFLT need to ride this wave and one way they could do is by making Apache Flink to natively support Python instead of just relying on Java. If they build sdk, python library which could do the heavy lifting when it comes to stream processing, transformation then NASDAQ:CFLT would be number one choice and popular among growing Python community and ML community. - I wouldn't be surprised to see NASDAQ:CFLT well above 60 dollars in next 2-3 years.

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- While I believe NASDAQ:CFLT chart looks good and it might go to $40 after earnings in Q1 2025. But data platform infra is getting very competitive. - First layer of competition comes from Hyperscalers like AWS, GCP and Azure which have their own variant of stream processing. Confluent had some leverage in terms of managed offering. - I believed that company is unique, in a strong niche but stock based compensation and dilution has always been a problem. - With volume of data, consumption based model makes sense. I liked that billing strategy over flat subscription type model as the prior one is easier to pass cost to consumers + have some margin (fixed). Why I'm bearish on this name lately? - I believe redpanda acquisition by Snowflake NYSE:SNOW would impede growth for NASDAQ:CFLT massively. - Snowflake has a moat in data warehousing, they are trying to become all things data infrastructure. - Streaming ingestion into snowflake is a capability which could have great synergy. While I wanted

- NASDAQ:CFLT has been range bound for two years now where the lower end is $14-18 and upper range is $35-38. - If FY 2025, Q1 exceeds expectation of the analyst then this stock will be able to get through the long term resistance and turn it into support. - NYSE:IOT is a peer company which operates in IOT and streaming data application layer which has shown promising results and returns. I believe NASDAQ:CFLT is a solid company and can reach $45+ comfortably.

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