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Niesr says even under best-case scenario, economy would grow at slower pace in 2026 and 2027 because of conflictBritain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer's government, a leading thinktank has warned.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle East conflict. Continue reading......

Defection is damaging to Saudi Arabia's prestige – and could strengthen the US hand in the regionThe United Arab Emirates' decision to walk out of Opec is a political as much as business decision, and will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia – which had been covered up by their shared anger with Iran over its attacks on the Gulf states since the start of the US-Israel war on Tehran.In the short term, leaving the oil producing cartel it joined in 1967 gives the UAE the freedom to respond quickly to a long-term prospect of constrained supplies, and to maximise profit. But it is a decision the UAE has considered before, as UAE and Saudi tensions over production quotas have been longstanding. Continue reading......

Downing Street says focus to remains on cutting bills, backing renters and lowering energy pricesDowning Street has dismissed a freeze on private sector rents even as Rachel Reeves left the door open to the idea, after the Guardian revealed the chancellor has been considering it as an option to cut the cost of living.A No 10 spokesperson said on Tuesday freezing private sector rents was “not the approach we will be taking” after sources told the Guardian it was Reeves's preferred solution for dealing with a spike in housing costs in the wake of the Iran war. Continue reading......

The bank shouldn't sound the all-clear, but two screw-ups doesn't mean the current credit cycle will end in tearsBarclays cuts back risky lending after £228m hit from UK mortgage firm MFSBarclays boss CS Venkatakrishnan, having seen the bank hit in the space of six months by two high-profile blow-ups in the world of shadow banking, is pledging to take more care. “We are constraining lending to certain structured finance counterparties who operate more vulnerable business models and cannot convince us of the quality and independence of their financial controls,” he said.There's an obvious response to that vow of greater vigilance: what were you doing previously? Wouldn't it have been a good idea in the first place not to lend to high-risk outfits with unconvincing financial controls – for example those with large mortgage exposures but small audit firms? There was, in other words, a sense in the chief executive's comments of stable doors being shut rather too late. Continue reading......

Erik Millstone and Tim Lang look at the evidence. Plus a letter from a woman who had campylobacter while pregnantYou were right to report (23 April) that government officials have actively considered how to respond to US pressure to accept imports of “chemical-washed chicken” and other processed products.This matters to the public, for whom chlorinated chicken has become a test case for whether UK standards are lowered for commercial and political reasons. Continue reading......

Companies are now seeking refunds on tariffs after supreme court ruled Trump's emergency levies were illegalSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxGeneral Motors is expecting a $500m tariff refund after the US supreme court struck down some of Donald Trump's most sweeping levies.That has boosted the Detroit automaker's outlook for 2026. On Tuesday, GM said it was now looking to rake in $13.5bn-$15.5bn in earnings before interest and taxes this year – up from previous forecasts of $13bn-$15bn. Continue reading......

Tech company is latest Silicon Valley firm to sign agreement with US military despite widespread employee oppositionGoogle has reportedly signed a deal with the US Pentagon to use its artificial intelligence models for classified work. The tech company joins a growing list of Silicon Valley firms inking agreements with US military.The agreement allows the Pentagon to use Google's AI for “any lawful government purpose”, the report from the Information added, putting it alongside OpenAI and Elon Musk's xAI, which also have deals to supply AI models for classified use. Similar agreements, both at Google and other AI firms, have sparked significant disagreements with the Pentagon and major employee pushback. Continue reading......

Trial is culmination of a years-long feud between Musk and Altman that has become increasingly viciousThe trial pitting Elon Musk against Sam Altman and OpenAI began in earnest on Tuesday with opening arguments, as lawyers for the two tech moguls seek to convince a California jury of their client's version of the AI company's history. The trial is set to feature testimony from both billionaires, as well as some of the most powerful executives in the tech industry.Musk argues that Altman, OpenAI and its president Greg Brockman broke a foundational agreement to better humanity when the non-profit pivoted towards a for-profit structure. Musk, who left OpenAI in 2018 after co-founding it with Altman and Brockman three years earlier, also alleges that his co-founders unjustly enriched themselves as the company raised billions of dollars and grew into the AI behemoth it is today. Continue reading......

Foundation set up by F1 great is beginning to address the lack of representation of black people and those from disadvantaged backgrounds in motorsportSports people can be more than the sum of their athletic achievements. Lewis Hamilton stands unquestionably as one of the greatest drivers in the history of Formula One having delivered records and outstanding performances that will be hard to surpass. Yet it is indicative of his character that the seven-time world champion rates them all as sitting only alongside what might ultimately be his most significant and long-lasting legacy. His Mission 44 foundation is making an indelible impact on the makeup of motorsport.“Talent is everywhere, opportunity isn't and that's what we're here to change. Setting up Mission 44 is one of the things I'm most proud of,” Hamilton says, reflecting on the foundation he created five years ago. “I've been working in F1 for 20 years and I know first-hand how important it is to have representation in our sport, and ho...

Shareholder agm briefly adjourned after protesters wearing T-shirts labelled 'No more big oil' burst into songThe chair of NatWest was forced to defend the bank against accusations of “climate backtracking” at a chaotic annual shareholder meeting, which was temporarily suspended owing to singing protesters.Not long after the meeting began in Edinburgh, it was adjourned for about half an hour after a protester interrupted Rick Haythornthwaite's opening speech. Continue reading......

10,000-capacity venue will sit next to Amex Stadium'This is the kind of progress we have dreamed about'Brighton's plans to build Europe's first purpose-built women's stadium is the “kind of progress we have dreamed about for years”, the Brighton and former England forward Fran Kirby has said.The Women's Super League club have released the first images of the 10,000-capacity venue, which they hope to open in time for the 2030-31 season. Continue reading......

Cyber-attacks, disinformation and blockading of supplies. This is what living in a war zone can look like nowWe are at war. Four words that sound ludicrously melodramatic on a sunny spring day, when all may not be exactly right with the world – but when you can still shut your eyes to a lot of it just by switching off the news and cracking on with life. No bombs are falling, no bullets flying, no sirens sounding. Though the idea that Britain is already under a form of hybrid attack is commonplace in defence circles, politicians still mostly skirt around it; and it was jolting at first to hear the Labour MP (and former RAF wing commander) Calvin Bailey make the case for conflict being our new reality at a conference hosted by the Good Growth Foundation thinktank last week in London. But then he started to unpack his reasoning for why war is no longer what you think it is.If war can be considered an assault on five fronts – against a country's political leadership, critical infrastructure, essentials s...

There's no point searching for a saviour without a genuine change in direction. Real courage is necessary – because Labour still has time to fix what is brokenIf not Keir Starmer, then who? That's altogether the wrong question. What matters is not who but what comes next. A black cloud of near terminal despair has fallen upon Labour MPs, but seeking a saviour is a useless endeavour until they decide what it is they want to do.The party is facing a cataclysm in next week's local elections. MPs will watch their councillors, the backbone of their local parties, vanish. Can they avoid panic? In their slough of despond they need to stop and think. Look at it this way: they have three full years ahead with a vast working majority of 165. They have the power to do everything the country most needs. Sunk so low in the polls, they have nothing to lose and nothing to fear (but fear itself). This chance may never come their way again, and they will regret it for ever if they throw it away, vainly chasing lost p...

Tech giant accused of 'cynical attempt to bust the union' in decision to shutter location in Towson, MarylandWorkers at the first Apple store to unionize in the US are pushing back against the company's decision to shut down the store by June, alleging the company's decision is rooted in “a cynical attempt to bust the union”.On Monday, the union filed an unfair labor practice charge against Apple, alleging unionized employees at the store in Towson, Maryland, are being denied transfer rights and other rights compared with workers at non-unionized stores. The union is also alleging retaliation for being unionized. Continue reading......

US president has accused organisation of 'ripping off the rest of the world' by inflating oil pricesBusiness live – latest updatesThe United Arab Emirates has quit the Opec oil cartel in a heavy blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, amid the global energy shock caused by the Iran war.The stunning loss of the UAE, a longstanding Opec member, could create disarray and weaken the group, which has usually sought to show a united front despite internal disagreements over a range of issues from geopolitics to production quotas. Continue reading......

Billionaire Alexei Mordashov's vessel, Nord, reportedly able to cross blockaded strait with US and Iranian approvalA superyacht owned by the Russian billionaire Alexei Mordashov was able to transit the blockaded strait of Hormuz after undergoing maintenance in Dubai because neither Iran nor the US objected, a source close to Mordashov said on Tuesday.It has been unclear how the multi-deck pleasure vessel, worth more than $500m (£370m), gained permission to sail on Saturday through the commercially important waterway at the heart of the US-Iran conflict, where traffic has been severely restricted since February. Continue reading......

We'd like to hear how you're adapting your expenditure as the cost of living rises amid the conflict in the Middle EastRising prices and economic uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East are putting pressure on household budgets across the UK.The Bank of England has warned that more than a million additional households could face higher mortgage payments in the coming years, as borrowing costs rise and lenders pull or reprice deals. Surveys suggest millions of households are already making changes to cope – cutting back, dipping into savings or taking on debt. Continue reading......

Co-founder of Browns, the celebrated London fashion store, who encouraged young designers such as Alexander McQueen For London's fashion-aware in 1970, South Molton Street was just a shortcut through dull Mayfair from Selfridges in Oxford Street to the Fenwick store in Bond Street. And then Joan Burstein, with her husband, Sidney, acquired No 27, an 18th-century row house, from Sir William Pigott-Brown, and kept his name for their clothes store. Over the next 50 years, much of South Molton Street became the empire of Browns.The Bursteins pioneered an approach to retail that we would now call “curation”. Designers in other countries were already producing prêt-à-porter, and gifted young British talents were making experimental collections, so there was excellent potential stock. Continue reading......

Though solar was initially incorrectly blamed for crisis, renewables have helped insulate Spain from gas price rises caused by war in Middle EastOne year ago today, all of Spain, and much of Portugal, suffered through a blackout of unprecedented scale and duration. In mere seconds, a cascading sequence of events burst through the grid and created Europe's first “system black” event in recent memory.Traffic signals failed, mobile networks stopped working entirely, petrol stations could not pump fuel and supermarkets could not process payments. Madrid's metro came to a halt and people had to be pulled out of carriages. “People were stunned because this had never happened in Spain,” Carlos Condori, a 19-year-old construction sector worker, told AFP at the time. “There's no [phone] coverage, I can't call my family, my parents, nothing: I can't even go to work.” Continue reading......

In theory, Musk and Altman's court fight could pose key questions about AI safety – in reality, it's motivated by money and personal grievanceSign up for the TechScape newsletter: our free technology emailHello, and welcome to TechScape. I'm your host, Blake Montgomery, US tech editor at the Guardian, writing to you from beneath a cherry blossom tree in Prospect Park in New York City. Spring has arrived!Facing AI and a tough job market, gen Z turns to entrepreneurship: 'I have to prove myself' Continue reading......