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IMF head warns Middle East war will lead to higher inflation and slower global growthGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.Oil prices continued to climb on Tuesday above $110 a barrel amid a deadline imposed by Donald Trump for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz or be “taken out,” with the US president threatening to order attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges.The markets are back on a Trump-imposed countdown clock. To use a sporting analogy, it's red time, and the result could go either way. Like a fortnight ago when the first threats from the Trump administration to attack Iranian power plants and other infrastructure were made, the markets are plonked at a crossroad, facing a binary outcome, at least in the short term.Either the attacks happen, marking a possibly catastrophic escalation where regional energy assets and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf is considered fair game. In such an instance, the energy complex ju...

CBI figures showing surprise jump in financial sector's growth will be welcome news for Rachel ReevesBritain's financial services companies have reported a strong recovery in activity at the start of the year, in a surprise boost to the government after a gloomy end to 2025.Banks, insurers and investment managers said their businesses were growing, with a positive balance of nearly two-thirds noting an expansion, according to a long-running survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), a lobby group. That contrasted with the negative balance of 38% in December, despite the start of the US-Israel war on Iran. Continue reading......

Government should look at ways to help as firms are paying disproportionate bills, says MakeUKBritish manufacturers have said they will have to pay an extra £940m a year in business rates because of changes by Rachel Reeves that come into effect this month.Manufacturers face a disproportionate business rates bill because they often have large factory floors, according to analysis by MakeUK, an industry lobby group. It said that factories accounted for a fifth of England and Wales's property by rateable value, despite manufacturers only accounting for a 10th of economic output. Continue reading......

With the UAE under fire from Iranian missies, wealthy investors are turning to Italy's flat-tax havenJust over a month ago, Dubai was the obvious destination for wealthy Britons in search of a new home. Few cities allow you to earn vast sums tax-free and spend them across any number of luxury hotels, restaurants and shops.But as the United Arab Emirates comes under Iranian fire, Dubai's reputation – in part created by emigrant influencers – as a haven for the global elite is eroding. Super-rich UK nationals are now looking for a route back to Europe; and Milan, the financial centre of Italy, is climbing to the top of the list. Continue reading......

An expletive-ridden post on social media shamed the office of the US president. Its substantive message, if acted on, would be a war crimeArticle 52 of the first additional protocol to the Geneva conventions prohibits attacks on civilian targets. It is on those grounds that the international criminal court has issued arrest warrants for Russian military officers and officials responsible for attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Such assaults, and the missiles rained on Ukrainian cities and towns in order to terrify and demoralise, constitute war crimes. Exactly the same would apply to the United States, should Donald Trump's threats to bomb Iran back to the “stone age” this week be carried out.Such basic tenets of international law bear repeating at a time when Mr Trump and his defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, appear to speak as if from within a bloodthirsty fever dream. Glorying repulsively in his capacity to order death and destruction from the Pentagon, Mr Hegseth, an Evangelical Chri...

AI experts say we're living in an experiment that may fundamentally change the model of workSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxHundreds of thousands of tech workers are facing a harsh reality. Their well-paying jobs are no longer safe. Now that artificial intelligence (AI) is here, their futures don't look as bright as they did a decade ago.As US tech companies have ramped up investments in AI, they've slashed a staggering number of jobs. Microsoft cut 15,000 workers last year. Amazon laid off 30,000 employees in the last six months. Financial-services company Block eliminated more than 4,000 people, or 40% of its workforce, in February. Meta laid off more than 1,000 in the last six months, and, according to a Reuters report, may cut 20% of all employees in the near future. Just this week, the software giant Oracle laid off thousands of workers. Smaller players like Pinterest and Atlassian also made recent cuts, culling about 15% and 10% of their workforces, re...

Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, a 'big win' for KalshiSign up for the Breaking News US email to get newsletter alerts in your inboxA federal appeals court ruled on Monday that New Jersey gaming regulators cannot prevent Kalshi from allowing people in the state to use its prediction market to place financial bets on the outcome of sporting events.A three-judge panel of the Philadelphia-based third US circuit court of appeals ruled 2-1 in finding that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction over the sports-related event contracts that Kalshi allows people to trade on its platform. Continue reading......

Performer is being extended 'forgiveness' over antisemitic remarks, says Melvin Benn, despite calls for banThe promoter of Wireless festival has stood by the decision to have Kanye West perform at the event, despite an outcry over the rapper's antisemitism and calls to cancel his appearance.West, who is legally known as Ye, has been criticised for making antisemitic remarks including voicing admiration for Adolf Hitler. Last year he released a song called Heil Hitler, a few months after advertising a swastika T-shirt for sale on his website. Continue reading......

This bold step would provide a practical route for restoring the UK to its rightful place within the EU, says Prof Philip MurphyThe prime minister's comments about seeking closer relations with the EU are to be welcomed as a step in the right direction (Starmer calls for 'ambitious' new UK-EU ties as Trump threatens to quit Nato, 1 April). Yet a piecemeal approach to repairing the damage done by Brexit is unlikely to succeed.A genuinely “ambitious” plan would be for Labour to announce a referendum on whether the UK should open negotiations on re-entry to the EU, promising a general election to secure a mandate to implement the proposal should the British public vote in favour. It would allow the government to seize the initiative, providing it with an issue around which to rally a broad base of electoral support. Continue reading......

The retailer has been criticised over treatment of Walker Smith, 54, who worked in London store for 17 yearsWaitrose is under growing pressure to reinstate an employee of 17 years who was sacked after tackling a shoplifter who was trying to steal Lindt Gold Bunny Easter eggs.The retailer has been criticised for its treatment of Walker Smith, who described his devastation after managers fired him two days after he stopped the shoplifter taking items from the display of Easter eggs. Continue reading......

US congressman decried bets on when two crew members on the F-15 jet shot down by Iranian forces would be rescuedAfter strong criticism from a federal lawmaker, the online betting platform Polymarket stopped accepting wagers on when US warplane crew members who were shot down in Iran might be rescued. It promised to investigate how the market materialized.The criticism came from Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts Democratic representative who earned two bronze star medals serving with the United States marine corps in Iraq from 2003 to 2008 and published an X post describing Polymarket's acceptance of bets on the downed pilots' fate as “DISGUSTING”. Continue reading......

Conservationists warn the move could push species closer to extinction and says clearer environmental rules are needed insteadGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastConservationists and scientists have warned a mining lobby proposal to use artificial intelligence to speed up national environmental approvals could generate “Robodebt-style” failures, putting threatened species at further risk.The Minerals Council of Australia has asked the government to spend $13m to trial the use of AI to help companies prepare applications and help the federal government make decisions. Continue reading......

JP Morgan boss appears to condemn president's tariff regime in annual letter to shareholdersMiddle East crisis – live updatesThe head of America's largest bank has pressed the White House to strengthen America's allies economically in order to “avoid truly adverse consequences”, in the latest instalment of an increasingly testy relationship with the Trump administration.As the Middle East conflict sparked by US and Israeli attacks on Iran enters its sixth week, Jamie Dimon, the chair and chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, said in his annual letter to shareholders that “good” US foreign policy should put America first “though not alone”. Continue reading......

Tougher ethical certification process requires companies to meet standards in every one out of seven categoriesDozens of companies may be at risk of losing their coveted B Corp ethical status after the organisation behind the corporate kite-marking system raised the standards required to qualify.B Lab, which oversees B Corp certification, launched the biggest overhaul in its 19-year history earlier this month, scrapping a system under which companies must gather enough points across multiple categories to qualify. Continue reading......

Trying to make ends meet is an impossible effort, and things are rapidly getting worse. It's time the government listened to people like usElla Michalski is part of Changing Realities, a project working with low-income familiesIn times of war, it is right that we focus on the human suffering of those affected by military action. But its ripple effects have worsened an already dire set of living standards for families like mine, who simply cannot meet the rising costs of the most basic of essentials. With Bank of England research showing that companies are expected to raise prices rapidly over the coming months, we feel genuinely terrified about the costs we'll be facing.What was once considered a temporary fiscal emergency after the invasion of Ukraine is now a persistent, gruelling reality for too many. The term “crisis” suggests something that we could move beyond. But this impossible effort to make ends meet is a constant now for millions. It has been going on for so long that it has become almos...

The president has boasted about cutting prices of drugs, housing, food and gasoline. It's grossly exaggerated nonsenseIn recent months, Donald Trump has made some absurd comments about inflation, saying the affordability crisis is “a hoax” and “I won affordability,” a clumsy, questionable claim meaning that he somehow conquered inflation. Trump recognizes that affordability is a huge issue, and with his war against Iran proving to be a big political loser, he seems eager to score some political points by telling Americans that he's moving boldly to cut living costs. But as with everything Trump says, people shouldn't be tricked by his slick salesmanship.Trump has boasted about cutting prescription drug prices, housing prices, food prices and gasoline prices. All that might be great public relations for Trump, but it's grossly exaggerated nonsense. Trump's much-ballyhooed efforts to fight inflation are essentially diddlysquat. Many of them are mini efforts that have had mini effects in reducin...

As Americans struggle amid the threat of higher inflation, Lockheed Martin, Shell and other companies are experiencing gainsTwo weeks into the US-Israel war with Iran, the White House was fielding heavy criticism that the conflict would drive up gas prices and frustrate voters. Donald Trump turned to Truth Social to appease Americans about gas prices, which were slowly climbing toward $4 a gallon.“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” he wrote. Continue reading......

Companies using heating oil have already begun rationing their fuel use, says Federation of Small BusinessesMiddle East crisis – live updatesThousands of independent businesses across the UK are braced for their energy bills to more than double owing to the sharp rise in heating oil costs as the war in Iran pushed Europe's fuel market prices to fresh record highs.About 7% of all small and medium-sized companies warm their properties and provide hot water using heating oil, which in some cases has more than doubled in recent weeks. Continue reading......

President shifts deadline again for attacking power plants and bridges in expletive-ridden social media postMiddle East crisis – live updatesDonald Trump issued an expletive-laden warning on Sunday that Tehran had until Tuesday night to reopen the strait of Hormuz or the US would obliterate Iran's power plants and bridges.Iran's parliament speaker responded with a warning that the US president's “reckless moves” would mean “our whole region is going to burn”. Continue reading......

Levy on inherited farms and family businesses worth £2.5m or more comes into force 6 AprilA new inheritance tax regime for UK farms and family businesses comes into force on Monday and will present “significant challenges” for those affected, according to accountants.In October 2024 the government announced plans to levy inheritance tax on farms – prompting an outcry in many quarters. Continue reading......