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04.11.26 - 11:09
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75,659 chart pattern setups tested: what actually survived (TradingView)
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What we did
We took 16 classic chart patterns and ran every one of them through the same
machine: 694 symbols (stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, indices) across 8
timeframes, from 1 minute to daily. One rule set, no hand picking, no setup
left out because it looked bad.
Three steps, always the same:
1. Detect. One rule set finds the pattern, on a closed candle only. The pivot
engine confirms a swing point five bars later, so nothing is drawn with
hindsight and nothing moves afterwards.
2. Measure. Entry, target and stop come from the pattern geometry itself, not
from an opinion. Then we simply count: did price reach the target first, or the
stop first? Broker costs come off every exit.
3. Publish. Every run goes into the table, the good and the bad. What is not in
there was not tested.
What came out
Tested in total: 75,659 setups (100%)
Positive expectancy: 5,430 (7.2%)
Above 70% win rate: 449 (0.6% of all, 8.3% of the positive ones)
Of those, with a long enough history: 290 (0.4% of all, 64.6% of the
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04.11.26 - 11:06
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75.659 Chartmuster getestet 694 Symbole × 16 Muster × 8 Zeit (TradingView)
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Was wir gemacht haben
Wir haben 16 klassische Chartmuster genommen und jedes durch dieselbe Mühle geschickt: 694 Symbole (Aktien, Forex, Krypto, Rohstoffe, Indizes) auf 8 Zeitrahmen, von 1 Minute bis Tageschart. Ein Regelsatz, nichts von Hand ausgesucht, nichts weggelassen, weil es schlecht aussah.
Immer dieselben drei Schritte:
Erkennen. Ein Regelsatz findet das Muster, ausschließlich auf abgeschlossenen Kerzen. Ein Wendepunkt gilt erst fünf Kerzen später als bestätigt, deshalb wird nichts im Nachhinein eingezeichnet und nichts verschiebt sich später.
Messen. Einstieg, Ziel und Stopp kommen aus der Geometrie des Musters selbst, nicht aus einer Meinung. Danach wird nur noch ausgezählt: kam zuerst das Ziel oder zuerst der Stopp? Die Broker-Kosten gehen bei jedem Ausstieg ab.
Veröffentlichen. Jeder Durchgang steht in der Tabelle, die guten und die schlechten. Was nicht drinsteht, wurde nicht getestet.
Was dabei herauskam
Stufe Setups Anteil
Insgesamt getestet 75.659 100 %
Mit positivem Ergebnis 5.430 7,2 %
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04.11.26 - 11:03
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75,659 chart pattern setups tested: what actually survived (TradingView)
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What we did
We took 16 classic chart patterns and ran every one of them through the same
machine: 694 symbols (stocks, forex, crypto, commodities, indices) across 8
timeframes, from 1 minute to daily. One rule set, no hand picking, no setup
left out because it looked bad.
Three steps, always the same:
1. Detect. One rule set finds the pattern, on a closed candle only. The pivot
engine confirms a swing point five bars later, so nothing is drawn with
hindsight and nothing moves afterwards.
2. Measure. Entry, target and stop come from the pattern geometry itself, not
from an opinion. Then we simply count: did price reach the target first, or the
stop first? Broker costs come off every exit.
3. Publish. Every run goes into the table, the good and the bad. What is not in
there was not tested.
What came out
Tested in total: 75,659 setups (100%)
Positive expectancy: 5,430 (7.2%)
Above 70% win rate: 449 (0.6% of all, 8.3% of the positive ones)
Of those, with a long enough history: 290 (0.4% of all, 64.6% of the
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25.05.26 - 19:33
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COST May 26 Setup (TradingView)
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Breakdown Has Control, But Price Is Sitting Near a Bounce-or-Fail Zone
COST is showing a much weaker structure compared to the other momentum names. The 15-minute chart shows a clear breakdown from the recent highs near 1090, followed by a steady lower-high and lower-low structure.
Price is now trading below both major moving averages, with the faster EMA curling down and acting as resistance. That tells me sellers are still in control short term. Every bounce attempt has been weak, and price is now compressing near the 1028–1030 area.
RSI is trying to recover from oversold, but it is still below the stronger momentum zone. That means this could be a small relief bounce, but not a confirmed reversal yet.
The key level on the chart is 1035.
If COST cannot reclaim 1035, the bearish structure remains active. A clean break below 1025 would likely open the door toward 1020, then 1000.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/lUkOjYmq/
Now adding GEX into the picture, the downside risk is still important. Calls are ligh
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