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20.01.25 - 10:48
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′Decent Risk′ of 5-6% Treasury Yields This Year, says Subbaraman (Bloomberg)
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Donald Trump's administration will be "inflationary" in the first year, says Rob Subbaraman, Nomura's Head of Global Macro Research. Coupled with a large fiscal deficit, there is a "decent risk" US 10-year Treasury yields could be heading toward 5-6% this year, he argues. Outside the US, sovereign yields "in countries that have weak fundamentals" could rise "even faster," adds Subbaraman. (Source: Bloomberg)...
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22.07.24 - 23:15
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Biden Ouster Sparks Some ′Trump Trade′ Unwind, Big-Tech & Bond-Yields Bounce (ZeroHedge)
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Biden Ouster Sparks Some 'Trump Trade' Unwind, Big-Tech & Bond-Yields Bounce
President Biden's removal from the ticket for the 2024 election sent Kamala Harris odds of winning in November soaring (but we note she remains below the pre-debate levels that Biden had reached)...
Source: Bloomberg
In response, US Equities are bullishly trading "DC gridlock", as Nomura's Charlie McElligott suggests the downstream Democrat elections odds in House races are being perceived as having greatly improved their win probabilities post the party coup removal of Biden...
All the majors were higher today led by Small Caps and Mega-Cap tech. The Dow lagged, but ended green...
...while so-called "Trump trades" like cyclical–type sectors come under some modest pressure (Energy and Materials as S&P's worst perf sectors)...
Source: Bloomberg
Mega-Cap tech and China ADRs (rate-cut) also ripped (in trump-trade-unwind-style)...
Source: Bloomberg
However, any 'Trump trade" unwind is NOT evident in bond-land...
S...
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