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08.08.25 - 16:00
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8/8/25 - $deck - Don't fud yo hoka (TradingView)
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8/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DECK
Don't fud yo hoka
- idk why 7+% fcf yield, buybacks, 35%+ ROICs, growth in 2H (worst behind us) and growing HSD++ is unattractive in this tape
- but i'll take the over here
- here's the deal... NASDAQ:CROX result was pretty bad. but honestly even that thing's a trading buy here.
- but if you're stacking size, you stack the best in class names. if you can get NYSE:ONON at a discount that's the diamond. but NYSE:DECK is for the rest of us. and it's a heck of a lot cheaper with great mgmt, results
- don't forget that the NYSE:ANF chart compare we made in a few posts again is holding to a T
- does that mean we r close to bottom? honestly that's not my game, i'll leave that to the 99% of tea leaf readers that post on TV
- instead what i'll say is i'm stacking size in the 10-20% ITM leaps here and feeling uber comfy. actually reminds me a lot of uber when i was writing about that before last year. same sort of shaky shaky price action that scared out the norms before they
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01.08.25 - 17:45
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8/1/25 - $deck - 50% position (TradingView)
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8/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DECK
50% position
- if you have followed long enough, you know that when i write this sort of thing, it's maybe 5-10x a year, at most
- i still think anything can happen here in the mkt, so there are a lot of arrangements i've made in my portfolio to account for further drawdowns
- with that being said, conservatively DECK is 6% fcf money, and on my #s probably closer to 7%. when you're growing minimally MSD (nevermind HSD+) eventually this gets revalued
- so my preference is to barbell exposure
- i have a LT exposure w ITM leaps (jan '27 expire) and then i have my jet fuel that i'm burning in the last few sessions to get exposure higher
- think about it like this
- if 1 unit of risk costs me $1 today and $10-15 in 2027, if in this type of tape we leg down... if i say had 1 unit of risk on both of those exposures, i'd lose 1 on the first (zero) and then maybe 2...3...4 on the other.
- which is to say, as we go lower here, i eventually find myself growing that LEAP exposure qui
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30.07.25 - 16:00
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7/30/25 - $deck - Degen time. (TradingView)
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7/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DECK
Degen time.
- look at the last NYSE:ANF report... and tell me you're not noticing the exact same pattern. massive rip. massive gap fill retrace.
- do we re-test pre-report levels mid to low $100s?
- that's what keeps me buying ITM leaps here, but going quite large
- i'm trying to figure out w/ $V report, consumer spending... all consistent w my views, why this doesn't become just the most obvious winner into 2H and '26
- so i'm buying myself some time w/ these expires and ITM
- but it's degen time.
V
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28.07.25 - 16:45
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7/28/25 - $deck - De risked, a few ways to play (TradingView)
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7/28/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DECK
De risked, a few ways to play
- mid teens PE
- 2 brands hitting on all strides (pun intended)
- great result, everyone offsides
- the action you're seeing here is MM re-adjusting post pop
- can buy spot/ sell covered calls for healthy mid 40s IV and roll
- my sense is sub $110 you are getting almost a simple play into YE and anything lower is increasing value (mid singles FCF yield growing DD, "yes please")
- so yeah, i like NASDAQ:LULU b/c of the google trends and valuation etc. etc. (go check that one out before tradingview removes it a third time)
- but this one back in the sub $115 zone is comfy like an (h)ugg
V
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24.07.25 - 23:30
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7/24/25 - $deck - Imagine not buying this... AH (TradingView)
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7/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DECK
Imagine not buying this... AH
- amazing to listen to the mental degradation of "sell side analysts".
- the quarterly ritual when real shareholders must endure management answering the room temperature IQ questions from these "research" providers is a circus
- right now there's a sell side "analyst" demanding an explanation for how 1 + 1 = 2. "put some meat on the bone" he says
- then he interrupts
- it's really amazing the way Elon handles these retards, i wish more mgmt teams would simply tell these folks the truth
- but alas
results is a smash. forget the minutia
- big revenue beat
- key brands growing (lol NYSE:NKE is not even growing and trades 2x multiples)
- buying back shares
- DTC is a tailwind
so weird AH action to see +15-20% then retrace to +2%
i'll be sizing this up and will respond tmr/ what i'm deciding. will be taking the 6x leverage on 1% 6mo ITM leverage to probably 2-3x leverage on 18 mo (jan '27) expires and targeting a gross of ~10%.
be well. e
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22.07.25 - 21:03
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Intriguing setup (TradingView)
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On 7/21 a OTM call flow came in for 114c expiring this Friday July 25th
Almost $130k in calls on a strike that has very low OI.
We have a beautiful gap above and a possible flag break in very low volume today.
Also, ER on thursday.
Do they know something??
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15.07.25 - 18:30
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7/15/25 - $deck - Not obvious. But it's a buy. (TradingView)
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7/15/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DECK
Not obvious. But it's a buy.
- will reiterate that i'm not on tape so closely this week, but will revert w any comment replies by next week; nevertheless i'm checking in here on the tape
- see what T did today on NVDA/ China?
- you think it's easier or harder to resolve some of these discretionary names in the meanwhile vs. nvda H20s to China?
- exactly.
- even NKE put up pretty barfy numbers and the stock was like well... who cares
- i think we're reaching that point with NYSE:DECK here after seeing NYSE:NKE , then reading between the lines on NASDAQ:NVDA ->consumer/discretionary tariffs etc. etc.
- rates will come down, the consumer is tapped out, new fed chair on deck etc. etc.
so the way I'm playing this:
i've bought some ITM calls for aug 15 expiry. why? because it allows me to get proper MSD size (3-4%) but pay only 30-40 bps (10x leverage). the thinking is this... if stock pukes on this result, i'm high conviction that 80% scenario i'd want to load TF up. and
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06.07.25 - 01:24
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Deere and Company (TradingView)
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NYSE:DE has broken out of a multi-year trading range and is now testing. Possible reaccumulation if we see a strong break through resistance and a test on low volume.
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27.05.25 - 17:51
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Long $DECK (TradingView)
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- NYSE:DECK is the only growth story I'm comfortable buying. This was wall street darling for many years. I believe sell off was overdone.
- It has lot of room to run. It is getting traction and NYSE:NKE because of law of large number is not growing much in %age.
- However, NYSE:DECK has lot of road ahead and it can grow for many years to come. Global expansion is also not out of the question.
- I strongly believe NYSE:DECK will make an all time high when this tariff narrative takes a backseat.
- Another bullish thing for NYSE:DECK is that Trump doesn't plan to bring back shoes or clothing manufacturing back in US.
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