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16.12.25 - 15:36
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′K-Shaped′ Economy? Core Retail Sales Surged In October (ZeroHedge)
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'K-Shaped' Economy? Core Retail Sales Surged In October
Amid the growing specter of a 'k-shaped' economy, BofA's (almost) omniscient analysts forecast strong retail sales for October - considerably stronger than Bloomberg's consensus of a marginal uptick.
BofA was wrong - very wrong - as the headline retail sales was unchanged MoM, which pulled sales down to +3.5% YoY (still relatively strong)...
Source: Bloomberg
However, Ex-Autos, and Ex-Autos and Gas both beat expectations.
The figures indicate consumer spending picked up steam in the early weeks of the holiday-shopping season as shoppers, many worried about their jobs and frustrated by the high cost of living, sought out deals.
Eight out of 13 retail categories posted increases, including solid advances at department stores and online merchants.
Motor vehicles fell 1.6%, held down in part by the expiration of federal tax incentives on electric vehicles. Cheaper gasoline prices held down the value of gas station receipts.
However, the...
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25.11.25 - 14:57
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US Retail Sales Disappoint In September (ZeroHedge)
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US Retail Sales Disappoint In September
After two months of nothing, the avalanche of actual government-supplied macro data begins in earnest with Retail Sales (for September). BofA's omniscient analysts expected a small beat...
Retail sales should be a slight beat based on BofA real-time card spending dataa pic.twitter.com/amrOxXgiqU
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 25, 2025
But, for once, they were off with headline sales rising just 0.2% MoM (+0.4% MoM exp) but still rising for the 4th straight month...
Source: Bloomberg
On an unadjusted basis, Retail Sales fell significantly MoM (but that appears to be a very seasonal factor)...
Excluding Autos, sales were up 0.3% MoM (in line with expectations) but Ex Autos and Gas it was a disappointment, rising just 0.1% MoM (+0.3% exp).
Motor Vehicles and Nonstore Retailers saw sales drop the most while Gasoline Stations and Food Services & Drinking sales rose the most...
Perhaps worst of all is the 0.1% MoM decline in the Control Group - which...
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