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                12.07.25 - 17:06 
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                     Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview (ZeroHedge)
                  
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                     Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview
            Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Next week, the Q2-2025 earnings season will begin in earnest as a barrage of S&P 500 companies report, starting with the Wall Street money center banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since earnings drive the market by supporting investor expectations, what should investors expect? Let's dig into the details.
Over the last few months, according to data from S&P Global, the Q2-2025 earnings estimates have declined from $234/share in the original March 2024 estimate to $220/share as of June 15th. That $14 drop in estimates is partially due to the impact of tariff concerns on corporate outlooks.
According to FactSet:
“Heading into the end of the quarter, analysts have reduced earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter more than average. However, the percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative earnings guidance for the second quarter is less than average. As a result, estimated earnings ...
                   
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                23.06.25 - 16:06 
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                     US PMIs Beat Expectations In Early June Data, But... (ZeroHedge)
                  
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                     US PMIs Beat Expectations In Early June Data, But...
            Following May's resurgence in 'soft' survey data, S&P Global's PMI surveys were expected to dip modestly in preliminary June data this morning.
But the picture was mixed with both Manufacturing flat (but beating expectations 52.0 vs 51.0 exp) and Services down very modestly (but beating expectations 53.1 vs 52.9 exp) rising at the start of June (even as hard data fades)...
Source: Bloomberg
However, prices also rose sharply in the service sector, likewise often attributed to tariffs but also reflecting higher financing, wage and fuel costs. Service sector input costs and selling prices nonetheless rose at slower rates than in May, in part reflecting more intense competition.
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“The June flash PMI data indicated that the US economy continued to grow at the end of the second quarter, but that the outlook remains uncertain wh...
                   
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                06.06.25 - 19:18 
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                     Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth? (ZeroHedge)
                  
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                     Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?
            Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings. As discussed recently, S&P Global's current estimates show earnings are growing far above the long-term exponential growth trend from 1936. Unfortunately, with regularity, earnings tend to repeatedly revert to the long-term trend due to economic recessions, financial crises, or other events that crimp economic activity. In the chart below, earnings haven't stayed at the top of the long-term growth trend channel for long. The current exponential growth trend for earnings is $195/share.
The obvious question is, what would cause earnings to revert so drastically from current levels? Unfortunately, there is no...
                   
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